---
title: "Move like a boss case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Move like a boss ($8.30) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.22% from 50 items with odds, observed 87.67% over 3,902 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/180
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Move like a boss](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/180)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Move like a boss

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/180?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/180?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/180) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/180?window=all)

Price · $8.30

Advertised RTP · 86.22% · EV $7.16 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.67% · 3,902 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.86% ±7.33 616 openings

7 days · 86.40% ±3.17 3,290 openings

30 days · 87.67% ±2.91 3,902 openings

since tracking started · 87.67% ±2.91 3,902 openings

82.0% 90.0% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/180?window=24h) | 616 | 89.86% ±7.33 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/180?window=7d) | 3,290 | 86.40% ±3.17 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/180) | 3,902 | 87.67% ±2.91 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/180?window=all) | 3,902 | 87.67% ±2.91 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,913 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $32.13 | 9.0% | 83 | 78.3 | 1.06× |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $30.69 | 8.6% | 96 | 78.3 | 1.23× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $27.56 | 7.7% | 80 | 78.3 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $20.02 | 5.6% | 88 | 78.3 | 1.12× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $14.30 | 4.0% | 63 | 78.3 | 0.81× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $14.20 | 4.0% | 78 | 78.3 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $13.94 | 3.9% | 68 | 78.3 | 0.87× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $11.85 | 3.3% | 75 | 78.3 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $10.99 | 3.1% | 83 | 78.3 | 1.06× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $10.25 | 2.9% | 90 | 78.3 | 1.15× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $9.43 | 2.6% | 71 | 78.3 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $8.81 | 2.5% | 82 | 78.3 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $7.47 | 2.1% | 81 | 78.3 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $7.15 | 2.0% | 72 | 78.3 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $6.88 | 1.9% | 71 | 78.3 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $6.46 | 1.8% | 69 | 78.3 | 0.88× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $6.28 | 1.8% | 73 | 78.3 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $6.26 | 1.7% | 79 | 78.3 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $6.20 | 1.7% | 81 | 78.3 | 1.04× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $6.14 | 1.7% | 75 | 78.3 | 0.96× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $6.07 | 1.7% | 86 | 78.3 | 1.10× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $6.04 | 1.7% | 82 | 78.3 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $5.90 | 1.6% | 64 | 78.3 | 0.82× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $5.73 | 1.6% | 74 | 78.3 | 0.95× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $5.51 | 1.5% | 65 | 78.3 | 0.83× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $5.31 | 1.5% | 72 | 78.3 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $5.05 | 1.4% | 68 | 78.3 | 0.87× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.94 | 1.4% | 75 | 78.3 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $4.90 | 1.4% | 86 | 78.3 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $4.21 | 1.2% | 80 | 78.3 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.20 | 1.2% | 88 | 78.3 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $4.10 | 1.1% | 76 | 78.3 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4.06 | 1.1% | 78 | 78.3 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $3.43 | 1.0% | 62 | 78.3 | 0.79× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $3.30 | 0.9% | 74 | 78.3 | 0.95× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $2.95 | 0.8% | 75 | 78.3 | 0.96× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.85 | 0.8% | 95 | 78.3 | 1.21× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.78 | 0.8% | 79 | 78.3 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $2.68 | 0.7% | 84 | 78.3 | 1.07× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $2.28 | 0.6% | 78 | 78.3 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.02 | 0.6% | 83 | 78.3 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.93 | 0.5% | 72 | 78.3 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1.82 | 0.5% | 67 | 78.3 | 0.86× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $1.69 | 0.5% | 92 | 78.3 | 1.18× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.53 | 0.4% | 77 | 78.3 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.19 | 0.3% | 84 | 78.3 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $1.13 | 0.3% | 85 | 78.3 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $1.13 | 0.3% | 83 | 78.3 | 1.06× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.11 | 0.3% | 86 | 78.3 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.98 | 0.3% | 85 | 78.3 | 1.09× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/180`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=180)

[Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) Hidden $8.30 $1.93 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.30 $4.90 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) [Kasb3rg](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kasb3rg) $8.30 $6.28 0.76x 2026-11-11 13:56 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $8.30 $0.98 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[P250 | Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) [\< blank >](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%3C%20blank%20%3E) $8.30 $4.06 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-well-worn) Hidden $8.30 $2.28 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) [SpizganyBanan](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SpizganyBanan) $8.30 $2.85 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) [adamnicho](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adamnicho) $8.30 $4.94 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) [SpizganyBanan](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SpizganyBanan) $8.30 $5.51 0.66x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $8.30 $0.98 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $8.30 | 86.22% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $9.30 | 86.35% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 4.0% classified 26.0% #d32ce6 2.0% restricted 34.0% violet 6.0% #8847ff 16.0% Legendary 6.0% #d32ee6 2.0% Restricted 2.0% Mythical 2.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.22 on average: an expected loss of $13.78 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt