---
title: "Small gift case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Small gift ($1.80) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.67% from 50 items with odds, observed 85.31% over 19.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/181
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Small gift](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/181)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Small gift

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/181?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/181?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/181) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/181?window=all)

Price · $1.80

Advertised RTP · 85.67% · EV $1.54 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.31% · 19.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.12% ±3.32 2,952 openings

7 days · 84.94% ±1.43 15.9K openings

30 days · 85.31% ±1.30 19.1K openings

since tracking started · 85.31% ±1.30 19.1K openings

78.0% 82.8% 87.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/181?window=24h) | 2,952 | 82.12% ±3.32 | −2.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/181?window=7d) | 15.9K | 84.94% ±1.43 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/181) | 19.1K | 85.31% ±1.30 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/181?window=all) | 19.1K | 85.31% ±1.30 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $8.40 | 10.9% | 389 | 383.0 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $6.70 | 8.7% | 393 | 383.0 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $5.36 | 7.0% | 382 | 383.0 | 1.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4.06 | 5.3% | 375 | 383.0 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.77 | 4.9% | 393 | 383.0 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $3.42 | 4.4% | 365 | 383.0 | 0.95× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.94 | 3.8% | 383 | 383.0 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.83 | 3.7% | 363 | 383.0 | 0.95× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.63 | 3.4% | 364 | 383.0 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $2.01 | 2.6% | 359 | 383.0 | 0.94× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.96 | 2.5% | 371 | 383.0 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1.90 | 2.5% | 371 | 383.0 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.86 | 2.4% | 395 | 383.0 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.86 | 2.4% | 365 | 383.0 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.58 | 2.0% | 353 | 383.0 | 0.92× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.47 | 1.9% | 355 | 383.0 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.43 | 1.9% | 360 | 383.0 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.42 | 1.8% | 391 | 383.0 | 1.02× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-fuel-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.36 | 1.8% | 389 | 383.0 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1.30 | 1.7% | 422 | 383.0 | 1.10× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.29 | 1.7% | 366 | 383.0 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.25 | 1.6% | 368 | 383.0 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1.19 | 1.5% | 408 | 383.0 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $1.17 | 1.5% | 375 | 383.0 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.96 | 1.2% | 374 | 383.0 | 0.98× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.96 | 1.2% | 423 | 383.0 | 1.10× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.92 | 1.2% | 399 | 383.0 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.87 | 1.1% | 421 | 383.0 | 1.10× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.85 | 1.1% | 392 | 383.0 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.84 | 1.1% | 376 | 383.0 | 0.98× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.73 | 0.9% | 428 | 383.0 | 1.12× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.67 | 0.9% | 392 | 383.0 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.56 | 0.7% | 367 | 383.0 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.55 | 0.7% | 370 | 383.0 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $0.54 | 0.7% | 395 | 383.0 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.53 | 0.7% | 373 | 383.0 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.51 | 0.7% | 373 | 383.0 | 0.97× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.50 | 0.6% | 378 | 383.0 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.44 | 0.6% | 392 | 383.0 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.44 | 0.6% | 395 | 383.0 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.41 | 0.5% | 335 | 383.0 | 0.87× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.36 | 0.5% | 382 | 383.0 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.35 | 0.5% | 388 | 383.0 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.33 | 0.4% | 394 | 383.0 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.32 | 0.4% | 385 | 383.0 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.31 | 0.4% | 384 | 383.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.29 | 0.4% | 420 | 383.0 | 1.10× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $0.26 | 0.3% | 388 | 383.0 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.25 | 0.3% | 401 | 383.0 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $0.19 | 0.2% | 372 | 383.0 | 0.97× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/181`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=181)

[MP9 | Bioleak (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-field-tested) Hidden $1.80 $0.36 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [Macix](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Macix) $1.80 $0.29 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heaven-guard-field-tested) [AlCiapone](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/AlCiapone) $1.80 $0.50 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[AUG | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) [esdeekirk](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/esdeekirk) $1.80 $3.42 1.90x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[AUG | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $1.80 $1.86 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) [cicho cicho „skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cicho%20cicho%20%E2%80%9Eskins.army%E2%80%9D) $1.80 $8.40 4.67x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

[AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.80 $1.96 1.09x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) [Kałciusz skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Ka%C5%82ciusz%20skins.army) $1.80 $1.58 0.88x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.80 $0.96 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.80 $0.29 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $1.80 | 85.67% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 2.0% 3 2.0% blue 6.0% mil spec 24.0% Rare 6.0% #4b69ff 18.0% violet 4.0% restricted 10.0% #8847ff 14.0% Mil Spec 2.0% Mythical 2.0% milspec 2.0% Uncommon 2.0% #87c7ff 2.0% industrial 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.67 on average: an expected loss of $14.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt