---
title: "Mysterious case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mysterious ($73.40) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.53% from 25 items with odds, observed 91.76% over 226 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/182
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Mysterious](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/182)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Mysterious

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/182?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/182?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/182) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/182?window=all)

Price · $73.40

Advertised RTP · 86.53% · EV $63.51 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.76% · 226 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 18 openings · below min

7 days · 93.05% ±13.69 173 openings

30 days · 91.76% ±11.98 226 openings

since tracking started · 91.76% ±11.98 226 openings

78.5% 123.5% 168.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/182?window=24h) | 18 | 125.37% ±42.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/182?window=7d) | 173 | 93.05% ±13.7 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/182) | 226 | 91.76% ±12.0 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/182?window=all) | 226 | 91.76% ±12.0 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 226 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $339 | 21.4% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $155 | 9.7% | 16 | 9.0 | 1.77× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $137 | 8.6% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $97.25 | 6.1% | 5 | 9.0 | 0.55× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $83.93 | 5.3% | 12 | 9.0 | 1.33× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $75.43 | 4.8% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $74.61 | 4.7% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $72.14 | 4.5% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $58.29 | 3.7% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.88× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $57.26 | 3.6% | 11 | 9.0 | 1.22× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $52.42 | 3.3% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $51.18 | 3.2% | 4 | 9.0 | 0.44× |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $50.93 | 3.2% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $50.15 | 3.2% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $42.16 | 2.7% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $35.89 | 2.3% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.77× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $33.89 | 2.1% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $24.34 | 1.5% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $23.28 | 1.5% | 11 | 9.0 | 1.22× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $22.18 | 1.4% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.66× |
| [MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-chainmail-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $16.52 | 1.0% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.88× |
| [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $16.41 | 1.0% | 14 | 9.0 | 1.55× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $13.41 | 0.8% | 4 | 9.0 | 0.44× |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $3.94 | 0.2% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.92 | 0.1% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.77× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/182`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=182)

[FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) Hidden $73.40 $97.25 1.32x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) [ponton](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ponton) $73.40 $83.93 1.14x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $73.40 $155 2.11x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[Galil AR | CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-battle-scarred) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $73.40 $50.93 0.69x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.40 $72.14 0.98x 2026-11-11 03:26 UTC

[M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $73.40 $42.16 0.57x 2026-11-11 03:26 UTC

[MAG-7 | Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-chainmail-factory-new) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $73.40 $16.52 0.23x 2026-11-11 03:26 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.40 $72.14 0.98x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC

[P250 | Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) Hidden $73.40 $33.89 0.46x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) Hidden $73.40 $339 4.62x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $73.40 | 86.53% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 16.0% covert 28.0% red 4.0% violet 8.0% #eb4b4b 4.0% restricted 20.0% #d32ce6 4.0% industrial 4.0% mil spec 4.0% Mythical 4.0% #8847ff 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.53 on average: an expected loss of $13.47 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt