---
title: "Mil-Spec case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Mil-Spec ($0.40) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.96% from 56 items with odds, observed 90.32% over 249K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/19
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Mil-Spec](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/19)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Mil-Spec

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/19?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/19?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/19) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/19?window=all)

Price · $0.40

Advertised RTP · 88.96% · EV $0.36 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.32% · 249K openings, odds method

Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 50.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 89.66% ±2.81 31.8K openings

7 days · 90.29% ±1.10 208K openings

30 days · 90.32% ±1.00 249K openings

since tracking started · 90.32% ±1.00 249K openings

86.0% 89.5% 93.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.96% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (89.32% – 91.32%, 249,188 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/19?window=24h) | 31.8K | 89.66% ±2.81 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/19?window=7d) | 208K | 90.29% ±1.10 | +2.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/19) | 249K | 90.32% ±1.00 | +2.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/19?window=all) | 249K | 90.32% ±1.00 | +2.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 250K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $211 | 0.6% | 7 | 2.5 | 2.80× |
| [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $203 | 0.6% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $108 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $55.77 | 0.2% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.60× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $44.27 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $31.71 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $19.08 | 0.1% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $6.18 | 0.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $6.14 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $5.88 | 0.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $4.75 | 0.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $3.66 | 0.0% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.60× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $2.87 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $2.71 | 0.0% | 6 | 2.5 | 2.40× |
| [FAMAS \| Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $2.13 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $2.12 | 0.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $1.94 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Slashed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-slashed-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $1.84 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $1.60 | 0.0% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $1.26 | 0.0% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $1.25 | 0.0% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $1.08 | 0.1% | 52 | 62.4 | 0.83× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 408 | $0.96 | 0.7% | 634 | 611.6 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-jambiya-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $0.82 | 0.0% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.40× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 15 | 10.0 | 1.50× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $0.80 | 0.0% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $0.79 | 1.4% | 1,524 | 1567.6 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-scumbria-battle-scarred) | 1 in 118 | $0.73 | 1.7% | 2,169 | 2121.7 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-minimal-wear) | 1 in 424 | $0.71 | 0.5% | 591 | 589.1 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 442 | $0.68 | 0.4% | 571 | 564.1 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-well-worn) | 1 in 370 | $0.66 | 0.5% | 716 | 674.0 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) | 1 in 358 | $0.59 | 0.5% | 706 | 696.4 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $0.58 | 3.1% | 4,709 | 4782.6 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 11,111 | $0.58 | 0.0% | 15 | 22.5 | 0.67× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-factory-new) | 1 in 325 | $0.55 | 0.5% | 774 | 768.8 | 1.01× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-well-worn) | 1 in 16,667 | $0.55 | 0.0% | 12 | 15.0 | 0.80× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.49 | 3.8% | 6,743 | 6846.9 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $0.47 | 1.5% | 2,835 | 2743.3 | 1.03× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $0.47 | 1.3% | 2,561 | 2543.6 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.46 | 6.2% | 11,781 | 11949.1 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-well-worn) | 1 in 8,333 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 28 | 30.0 | 0.93× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $0.43 | 1.2% | 2,383 | 2408.8 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $0.43 | 1.1% | 2,327 | 2226.6 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.42 | 4.6% | 9,959 | 9829.8 | 1.01× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.41 | 5.2% | 11,258 | 11200.2 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.41 | 4.6% | 10,036 | 10072.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-classic-crate-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.40 | 4.9% | 10,749 | 10833.3 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-survivor-z-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.39 | 3.5% | 8,018 | 7960.2 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Facility Negative (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-minimal-wear) | 13.6% | $0.35 | 13.4% | 33,908 | 34047.5 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.33 | 6.5% | 17,369 | 17375.7 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-field-tested) | 1 in 1,786 | $0.32 | 0.1% | 142 | 139.8 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Off World (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-off-world-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.31 | 3.5% | 10,010 | 10074.5 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.30 | 5.7% | 16,796 | 16811.6 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.29 | 2.0% | 6,369 | 6277.8 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.28 | 2.8% | 8,765 | 8759.0 | 1.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-minimal-wear) | 26.0% | $0.23 | 16.8% | 65,017 | 64937.3 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/19`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $211 526.6x 2026-11-07 21:43 UTC

[Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $211 526.6x 2026-11-07 17:15 UTC

[Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $211 526.6x 2026-11-07 07:29 UTC

[Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) [FastSnoot](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/FastSnoot) $0.40 $211 526.6x 2026-11-07 00:57 UTC

[Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $211 526.6x 2026-11-06 20:06 UTC

[Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) [RONALDOskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RONALDOskins.army) $0.40 $211 526.6x 2026-11-05 04:28 UTC

[Galil AR | Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $211 526.6x 2026-11-03 20:33 UTC

[MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-minimal-wear) [przemox\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/przemox_) $0.40 $203 507.3x 2026-11-10 14:59 UTC

[MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.40 $203 507.3x 2026-11-09 12:10 UTC

[MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-minimal-wear) [Mega.KB](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mega.KB) $0.40 $203 507.3x 2026-11-07 22:59 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=19)

[P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.40 $0.35 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[P250 | Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $0.42 1.05x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-minimal-wear) [OXO skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/OXO%20skins.army) $0.40 $0.23 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fubar-field-tested) [szon\_lover320](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/szon_lover320) $0.40 $0.30 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.40 $0.35 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[AUG | Triqua (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $0.29 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-co-processor-minimal-wear) [OXO skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/OXO%20skins.army) $0.40 $0.23 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[P90 | Grim (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-field-tested) [szon\_lover320](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/szon_lover320) $0.40 $0.28 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[AUG | Triqua (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $0.29 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-facility-negative-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.40 $0.35 0.87x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $0.40 | 88.96% | 56 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 0.9% mil spec 32.0% #4b69ff 62.4% Rare 0.7% blue 3.9% milspec 0.0% best hit $211 (526.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.96 on average: an expected loss of $11.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt