---
title: "Catch case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Catch ($124.40) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.65% from 25 items with odds, observed 79.77% over 195 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/198
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Catch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/198)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Catch

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/198?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/198?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/198) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/198?window=all)

Price · $124.40

Advertised RTP · 86.65% · EV $107.79 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.77% · 195 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 27 openings · below min

7 days · 77.46% ±13.29 169 openings

30 days · 79.77% ±12.37 195 openings

since tracking started · 79.77% ±12.37 195 openings

61.0% 94.8% 128.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/198?window=24h) | 27 | 94.74% ±33.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/198?window=7d) | 169 | 77.46% ±13.3 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/198) | 195 | 79.77% ±12.4 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/198?window=all) | 195 | 79.77% ±12.4 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 195 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $523 | 19.4% | 3 | 7.8 | 0.38× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $281 | 10.4% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $235 | 8.7% | 11 | 7.8 | 1.41× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $200 | 7.4% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $175 | 6.5% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $137 | 5.1% | 1 | 7.8 | 0.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $126 | 4.7% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $112 | 4.2% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $99.00 | 3.7% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $89.63 | 3.3% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $89.35 | 3.3% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $89.32 | 3.3% | 15 | 7.8 | 1.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $75.43 | 2.8% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $75.42 | 2.8% | 13 | 7.8 | 1.67× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $72.14 | 2.7% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $69.72 | 2.6% | 2 | 7.8 | 0.26× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $63.92 | 2.4% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $53.37 | 2.0% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $41.43 | 1.5% | 10 | 7.8 | 1.28× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $26.16 | 1.0% | 10 | 7.8 | 1.28× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $24.34 | 0.9% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $23.25 | 0.9% | 11 | 7.8 | 1.41× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $6.93 | 0.3% | 7 | 7.8 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.15 | 0.2% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.89 | 0.1% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/198`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-minimal-wear) Hidden $124 $523 4.20x 2026-11-11 03:33 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-minimal-wear) Hidden $124 $523 4.20x 2026-11-10 20:36 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-minimal-wear) [aimstarooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/aimstarooo) $124 $523 4.20x 2026-11-09 23:00 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=198)

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) Hidden $124 $112 0.90x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC

[Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) Hidden $124 $281 2.26x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $124 $89.63 0.72x 2026-11-11 15:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) Hidden $124 $112 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $124 $6.93 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) Hidden $124 $23.25 0.19x 2026-11-11 03:44 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-minimal-wear) [Czapa 1 lvl Faceit](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Czapa%201%20lvl%20Faceit) $124 $63.92 0.51x 2026-11-11 03:44 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) Hidden $124 $23.25 0.19x 2026-11-11 03:35 UTC

[AWP | Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) Hidden $124 $24.34 0.20x 2026-11-11 03:35 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $124 $26.16 0.21x 2026-11-11 03:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $124 | 86.65% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 12.0% classified 40.0% covert 36.0% industrial 8.0% #d32ce6 4.0% best hit $523 (4.20x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.65 on average: an expected loss of $13.35 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt