---
title: "On thin ice case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "On thin ice ($44.60) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.50% from 50 items with odds, observed 92.57% over 326 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/200
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [On thin ice](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/200)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · On thin ice

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/200?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/200?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/200) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/200?window=all)

Price · $44.60

Advertised RTP · 86.50% · EV $38.58 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.57% · 326 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 40 openings · below min

7 days · 88.04% ±15.50 235 openings

30 days · 92.57% ±13.16 326 openings

since tracking started · 92.57% ±13.16 326 openings

72.0% 113.5% 155.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/200?window=24h) | 40 | 116.78% ±37.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/200?window=7d) | 235 | 88.04% ±15.5 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/200) | 326 | 92.57% ±13.2 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/200?window=all) | 326 | 92.57% ±13.2 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 332 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $295 | 15.3% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.05× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $155 | 8.0% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.36× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $147 | 7.6% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $140 | 7.3% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.51× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $112 | 5.8% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $101 | 5.2% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $93.15 | 4.8% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.60× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $83.93 | 4.4% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.90× |
| [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $83.15 | 4.3% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $74.61 | 3.9% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.20× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $52.14 | 2.7% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.90× |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $50.93 | 2.6% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $34.63 | 1.8% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $33.90 | 1.8% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.36× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $32.41 | 1.7% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $30.15 | 1.6% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $29.55 | 1.5% | 2 | 6.6 | 0.30× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $29.10 | 1.5% | 11 | 6.6 | 1.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $27.96 | 1.4% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.45× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $27.41 | 1.4% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $24.89 | 1.3% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.20× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $20.38 | 1.1% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $20.08 | 1.0% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.36× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $19.43 | 1.0% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.60× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $18.79 | 1.0% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $17.96 | 0.9% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $16.78 | 0.9% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.05× |
| [MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-chainmail-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $16.52 | 0.9% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.60× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $15.81 | 0.8% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.36× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $14.87 | 0.8% | 12 | 6.6 | 1.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $14.22 | 0.7% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $13.16 | 0.7% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.05× |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $12.12 | 0.6% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.05× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $11.69 | 0.6% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.05× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $10.76 | 0.6% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.20× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $6.69 | 0.3% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.90× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $6.01 | 0.3% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4.99 | 0.3% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.36× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4.98 | 0.3% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.45× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.90 | 0.3% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.60× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $3.84 | 0.2% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Navy Murano (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $3.80 | 0.2% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.90× |
| [AUG \| Navy Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.95 | 0.2% | 6 | 6.6 | 0.90× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $2.55 | 0.1% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $1.86 | 0.1% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.75× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.78 | 0.1% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $1.75 | 0.1% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.51× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $1.31 | 0.1% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.51× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.95 | 0.0% | 4 | 6.6 | 0.60× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.36 | 0.0% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.05× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/200`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=200)

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) Hidden $44.60 $1.86 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) [jak to 2 na 13:00?](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/jak%20to%202%20na%2013%3A00%3F) $44.60 $3.84 0.09x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $44.60 $12.12 0.27x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $44.60 $27.41 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $44.60 $155 3.47x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $44.60 $74.61 1.67x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $44.60 $295 6.62x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[AUG | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $44.60 $1.78 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) Hidden $44.60 $4.90 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

[Galil AR | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $44.60 $12.12 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $44.60 | 86.50% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 14.0% #eb4b4b 2.0% #8847ff 8.0% restricted 18.0% classified 22.0% mil spec 6.0% Restricted 4.0% pink 4.0% violet 2.0% industrial 4.0% #d32ee6 2.0% #4b69ff 4.0% consumer 2.0% #777777 2.0% Mythical 2.0% Rare 2.0% #87c7ff 2.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.50 on average: an expected loss of $13.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt