---
title: "Smart move case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Smart move ($14.60) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.47% from 25 items with odds, observed 84.16% over 1,351 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/202
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Smart move](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/202)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Smart move

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/202?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/202?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/202) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/202?window=all)

Price · $14.60

Advertised RTP · 86.47% · EV $12.63 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.16% · 1,351 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.62% ±8.75 274 openings

7 days · 85.16% ±4.09 1,154 openings

30 days · 84.16% ±3.77 1,351 openings

since tracking started · 84.16% ±3.77 1,351 openings

75.0% 84.5% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/202?window=24h) | 274 | 84.62% ±8.75 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/202?window=7d) | 1,154 | 85.16% ±4.09 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/202) | 1,351 | 84.16% ±3.77 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/202?window=all) | 1,351 | 84.16% ±3.77 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,351 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $52.84 | 16.7% | 58 | 54.0 | 1.07× |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $31.61 | 10.0% | 61 | 54.0 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $29.79 | 9.4% | 47 | 54.0 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $19.10 | 6.1% | 49 | 54.0 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $17.36 | 5.5% | 46 | 54.0 | 0.85× |
| [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $16.96 | 5.4% | 41 | 54.0 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $15.19 | 4.8% | 57 | 54.0 | 1.05× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $14.84 | 4.7% | 51 | 54.0 | 0.94× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $13.75 | 4.4% | 51 | 54.0 | 0.94× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $13.11 | 4.2% | 55 | 54.0 | 1.02× |
| ['Blueberries' Buckshot \| NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/blueberries-buckshot-nswc-seal) | 1 in 25 | $12.07 | 3.8% | 63 | 54.0 | 1.17× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $9.43 | 3.0% | 58 | 54.0 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $8.95 | 2.8% | 53 | 54.0 | 0.98× |
| [1st Lieutenant Farlow \| SWAT agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/1st-lieutenant-farlow-swat) | 1 in 25 | $8.26 | 2.6% | 46 | 54.0 | 0.85× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $7.60 | 2.4% | 47 | 54.0 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $7.56 | 2.4% | 57 | 54.0 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-limelight-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $7.15 | 2.3% | 69 | 54.0 | 1.28× |
| [FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $6.39 | 2.0% | 51 | 54.0 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6.33 | 2.0% | 51 | 54.0 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $4.74 | 1.5% | 59 | 54.0 | 1.09× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $4.54 | 1.4% | 61 | 54.0 | 1.13× |
| [AUG \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.95 | 0.9% | 64 | 54.0 | 1.18× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $2.45 | 0.8% | 68 | 54.0 | 1.26× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.22 | 0.7% | 42 | 54.0 | 0.78× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.44 | 0.1% | 46 | 54.0 | 0.85× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/202`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=202)

[FAMAS | Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) Hidden $14.60 $6.39 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) [wojda8skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/wojda8skins.army) $14.60 $8.95 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[AWP | POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) [✪ VeRoN ✪](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%9C%AA%20VeRoN%20%E2%9C%AA) $14.60 $6.33 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[AUG | Aristocrat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-factory-new) [SpizganyBanan](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SpizganyBanan) $14.60 $4.54 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[AUG | Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) Hidden $14.60 $13.75 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

['Blueberries' Buckshot | NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/blueberries-buckshot-nswc-seal) Hidden $14.60 $12.07 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) Hidden $14.60 $9.43 0.65x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) [davids.777CASE.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/davids.777CASE.GIFT) $14.60 $17.36 1.19x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

['Blueberries' Buckshot | NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/blueberries-buckshot-nswc-seal) Hidden $14.60 $12.07 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-limelight-factory-new) Hidden $14.60 $7.15 0.49x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $14.60 | 86.47% | 25 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $16.40 | 86.36% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 4.0% industrial 12.0% #4b69ff 8.0% restricted 20.0% classified 8.0% blue 4.0% #d32ee6 8.0% violet 4.0% pink 8.0% #8847ff 16.0% mil spec 4.0% Mythical 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.47 on average: an expected loss of $13.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt