--- title: "Nuclear case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nuclear ($56.20) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.55% from 25 items with odds, observed 100.79% over 849 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/203 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Nuclear](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/203) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Nuclear A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/203?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/203?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/203) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/203?window=all) Price · $56.20 Advertised RTP · 86.55% · EV $48.64 from 25 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.79% · 849 openings, odds method Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 73 openings · below min 7 days · 92.22% ±13.53 660 openings 30 days · 100.79% ±11.93 849 openings since tracking started · 100.79% ±11.93 849 openings 21.0% 67.3% 113.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 86.55% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (88.87% – 112.72%, 849 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/203?window=24h) | 73 | 62.54% ±40.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/203?window=7d) | 660 | 92.22% ±13.5 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/203) | 849 | 100.79% ±11.9 | +2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/203?window=all) | 849 | 100.79% ±11.9 | +2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 854 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $514 | 42.2% | 50 | 34.2 | 1.46× | | [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $107 | 8.8% | 28 | 34.2 | 0.82× | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $97.53 | 8.0% | 28 | 34.2 | 0.82× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $75.36 | 6.2% | 37 | 34.2 | 1.08× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $61.13 | 5.0% | 31 | 34.2 | 0.91× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $53.96 | 4.4% | 35 | 34.2 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $48.85 | 4.0% | 39 | 34.2 | 1.14× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $44.92 | 3.7% | 31 | 34.2 | 0.91× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $44.02 | 3.6% | 37 | 34.2 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $33.59 | 2.8% | 36 | 34.2 | 1.05× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $32.51 | 2.7% | 35 | 34.2 | 1.02× | | [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $28.63 | 2.4% | 37 | 34.2 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $18.93 | 1.6% | 24 | 34.2 | 0.70× | | [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $16.51 | 1.4% | 39 | 34.2 | 1.14× | | [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $15.16 | 1.2% | 29 | 34.2 | 0.85× | | [AUG \| Carved Jade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $12.76 | 1.0% | 43 | 34.2 | 1.26× | | [MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.20 | 0.4% | 33 | 34.2 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.06 | 0.2% | 25 | 34.2 | 0.73× | | [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.47 | 0.1% | 31 | 34.2 | 0.91× | | [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.98 | 0.1% | 39 | 34.2 | 1.14× | | [MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.65 | 0.1% | 43 | 34.2 | 1.26× | | [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.58 | 0.0% | 27 | 34.2 | 0.79× | | [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.46 | 0.0% | 31 | 34.2 | 0.91× | | [MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.31 | 0.0% | 34 | 34.2 | 1.00× | | [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.20 | 0.0% | 32 | 34.2 | 0.94× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/203`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) [Not\_AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Not_AnoN) $56.20 $514 9.14x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) [Mateuszyście](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mateuszy%C5%9Bcie) $56.20 $514 9.14x 2026-11-10 15:31 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) [cerolziN](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cerolziN) $56.20 $514 9.14x 2026-11-10 03:16 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.20 $514 9.14x 2026-11-09 23:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.20 $514 9.14x 2026-11-09 21:55 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) [Mateuszyście](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mateuszy%C5%9Bcie) $56.20 $514 9.14x 2026-11-09 20:43 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.20 $514 9.14x 2026-11-09 16:45 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) [natanmarcon556](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/natanmarcon556) $56.20 $514 9.14x 2026-11-09 12:32 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.20 $514 9.14x 2026-11-08 22:37 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.20 $514 9.14x 2026-11-08 22:25 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=203) [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.20 $0.98 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) Hidden $56.20 $0.58 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $56.20 $0.58 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) Hidden $56.20 $44.02 0.78x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [AK-47 | Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $56.20 $18.93 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-battle-scarred) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $56.20 $0.46 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [P250 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) [adamnicho](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adamnicho) $56.20 $48.85 0.87x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) Hidden $56.20 $53.96 0.96x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [MP9 | Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-battle-scarred) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $56.20 $0.46 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:12 UTC [MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) Hidden $56.20 $0.65 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $56.20 | 86.55% | 25 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 16.0% #4b69ff 12.0% mil spec 24.0% #8847ff 12.0% covert 12.0% Mythical 4.0% blue 4.0% Rare 8.0% #87c7ff 8.0% best hit $514 (9.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.55 on average: an expected loss of $13.45 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt