--- title: "Pinky case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Pinky ($26.30) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.70% from 25 items with odds, observed 91.07% over 1,217 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/204 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Pinky](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/204) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Pinky A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/204?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/204?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/204) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/204?window=all) Price · $26.30 Advertised RTP · 86.70% · EV $22.80 from 25 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.07% · 1,217 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.67% ±13.03 244 openings 7 days · 90.94% ±6.20 1,077 openings 30 days · 91.07% ±5.84 1,217 openings since tracking started · 91.07% ±5.84 1,217 openings 73.0% 86.8% 100.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/204?window=24h) | 244 | 86.67% ±13.0 | −0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/204?window=7d) | 1,077 | 90.94% ±6.20 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/204) | 1,217 | 91.07% ±5.84 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/204?window=all) | 1,217 | 91.07% ±5.84 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,217 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $115 | 20.2% | 62 | 48.7 | 1.27× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $89.35 | 15.7% | 47 | 48.7 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $59.46 | 10.4% | 50 | 48.7 | 1.03× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $53.88 | 9.5% | 52 | 48.7 | 1.07× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $26.55 | 4.7% | 41 | 48.7 | 0.84× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $24.66 | 4.3% | 41 | 48.7 | 0.84× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $23.40 | 4.1% | 42 | 48.7 | 0.86× | | [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $18.71 | 3.3% | 58 | 48.7 | 1.19× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $17.28 | 3.0% | 54 | 48.7 | 1.11× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $15.11 | 2.7% | 56 | 48.7 | 1.15× | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $15.06 | 2.6% | 57 | 48.7 | 1.17× | | [Nova \| Bloomstick (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $12.53 | 2.2% | 57 | 48.7 | 1.17× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $11.73 | 2.1% | 38 | 48.7 | 0.78× | | [Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $10.69 | 1.9% | 56 | 48.7 | 1.15× | | [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $10.51 | 1.8% | 38 | 48.7 | 0.78× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $9.82 | 1.7% | 42 | 48.7 | 0.86× | | [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $8.73 | 1.5% | 48 | 48.7 | 0.99× | | [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $7.59 | 1.3% | 46 | 48.7 | 0.94× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $6.74 | 1.2% | 60 | 48.7 | 1.23× | | [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $6.68 | 1.2% | 42 | 48.7 | 0.86× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $6.33 | 1.1% | 36 | 48.7 | 0.74× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $6.23 | 1.1% | 46 | 48.7 | 0.94× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.81 | 0.8% | 64 | 48.7 | 1.31× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.55 | 0.8% | 41 | 48.7 | 0.84× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.38 | 0.8% | 43 | 48.7 | 0.88× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/204`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=204) [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.30 $23.40 0.89x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Nova | Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.30 $10.69 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) [Luźny Joe skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Lu%C5%BAny%20Joe%20skins.army) $26.30 $4.55 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [Nova | Antique (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-minimal-wear) Hidden $26.30 $10.69 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $26.30 $6.23 0.24x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) Hidden $26.30 $9.82 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) Hidden $26.30 $10.51 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) Hidden $26.30 $26.55 1.01x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $26.30 $9.82 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) Hidden $26.30 $15.11 0.57x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $26.30 | 86.70% | 25 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 80.0% pink 8.0% #d32ee6 8.0% Legendary 4.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.70 on average: an expected loss of $13.30 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt