---
title: "Dingy case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dingy ($17.90) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.95% from 25 items with odds, observed 84.39% over 1,095 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/206
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Dingy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/206)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Dingy

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/206?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/206?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/206) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/206?window=all)

Price · $17.90

Advertised RTP · 86.95% · EV $15.56 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.39% · 1,095 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83 openings · below min

7 days · 84.74% ±7.67 965 openings

30 days · 84.39% ±7.20 1,095 openings

since tracking started · 84.39% ±7.20 1,095 openings

45.5% 72.3% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/206?window=24h) | 83 | 72.06% ±26.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/206?window=7d) | 965 | 84.74% ±7.67 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/206) | 1,095 | 84.39% ±7.20 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/206?window=all) | 1,095 | 84.39% ±7.20 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,095 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $89.99 | 23.1% | 47 | 43.8 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $68.63 | 17.6% | 39 | 43.8 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $42.28 | 10.9% | 39 | 43.8 | 0.89× |
| [MAG-7 \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $31.26 | 8.0% | 41 | 43.8 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $21.35 | 5.5% | 41 | 43.8 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $20.76 | 5.3% | 43 | 43.8 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $16.79 | 4.3% | 46 | 43.8 | 1.05× |
| [MAG-7 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-chainmail-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $16.52 | 4.2% | 45 | 43.8 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $14.48 | 3.7% | 39 | 43.8 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $14.26 | 3.7% | 42 | 43.8 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $13.84 | 3.6% | 49 | 43.8 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $10.60 | 2.7% | 37 | 43.8 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $7.35 | 1.9% | 33 | 43.8 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $7.22 | 1.9% | 41 | 43.8 | 0.94× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $6.63 | 1.7% | 46 | 43.8 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Condemned (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.56 | 0.9% | 47 | 43.8 | 1.07× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.56 | 0.4% | 52 | 43.8 | 1.19× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.35 | 0.1% | 63 | 43.8 | 1.44× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 41 | 43.8 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.31 | 0.1% | 45 | 43.8 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.25 | 0.1% | 44 | 43.8 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.21 | 0.1% | 46 | 43.8 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.20 | 0.1% | 38 | 43.8 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 44 | 43.8 | 1.00× |
| [Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 47 | 43.8 | 1.07× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/206`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=206)

[AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.90 $7.22 0.40x 2026-11-11 16:17 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.90 $0.21 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.90 $21.35 1.19x 2026-11-11 16:17 UTC

[Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-minimal-wear) [bryrek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/bryrek) $17.90 $0.25 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:17 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) Hidden $17.90 $6.63 0.37x 2026-11-11 16:17 UTC

[Nova | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.90 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:17 UTC

[Nova | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-candy-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.90 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:17 UTC

[P250 | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) [bryrek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/bryrek) $17.90 $16.79 0.94x 2026-11-11 16:17 UTC

[P250 | Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.90 $14.26 0.80x 2026-11-11 16:13 UTC

[MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $17.90 $0.31 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:13 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $17.90 | 86.95% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed industrial 64.0% #87c7ff 28.0% Industrial Grade 4.0% Uncommon 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.95 on average: an expected loss of $13.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt