---
title: "Ache case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ache ($4.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 62 items with odds, observed 87.28% over 8,994 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/207
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Ache](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/207)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Ache

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/207?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/207?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/207) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/207?window=all)

Price · $4.50

Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $4.00 from 62 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.28% · 8,994 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76.47% ±9.94 1,111 openings

7 days · 87.75% ±3.88 7,297 openings

30 days · 87.28% ±3.49 8,994 openings

since tracking started · 87.28% ±3.49 8,994 openings

66.0% 79.3% 92.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/207?window=24h) | 1,111 | 76.47% ±9.94 | −2.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/207?window=7d) | 7,297 | 87.75% ±3.88 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/207) | 8,994 | 87.28% ±3.49 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/207?window=all) | 8,994 | 87.28% ±3.49 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 62 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,016 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $272 | 1.0% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $134 | 1.0% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $94.31 | 1.0% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 2,041 | $79.75 | 1.0% | 7 | 4.4 | 1.58× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 1,923 | $74.83 | 1.0% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 1,351 | $52.77 | 1.0% | 0 | 6.7 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,351 | $52.37 | 1.0% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.90× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 1,333 | $51.69 | 1.0% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-well-worn) | 1 in 1,282 | $49.63 | 1.0% | 9 | 7.0 | 1.28× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 775 | $44.39 | 1.4% | 10 | 11.6 | 0.86× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 1 in 746 | $42.93 | 1.4% | 11 | 12.1 | 0.91× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) | 1 in 645 | $37.09 | 1.4% | 15 | 14.0 | 1.07× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 568 | $32.58 | 1.4% | 21 | 15.9 | 1.32× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 535 | $30.73 | 1.4% | 13 | 16.9 | 0.77× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) | 1 in 372 | $21.37 | 1.4% | 17 | 24.3 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 366 | $21.05 | 1.4% | 23 | 24.6 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $19.15 | 1.4% | 29 | 27.0 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 317 | $18.24 | 1.4% | 27 | 28.4 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) | 1 in 310 | $17.79 | 1.4% | 34 | 29.1 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 309 | $17.71 | 1.4% | 40 | 29.2 | 1.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 300 | $17.25 | 1.4% | 27 | 30.0 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 299 | $17.13 | 1.4% | 26 | 30.2 | 0.86× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-well-worn) | 1 in 295 | $16.91 | 1.4% | 32 | 30.6 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 295 | $16.91 | 1.4% | 36 | 30.6 | 1.18× |
| [XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-xoxo-factory-new) | 1 in 277 | $15.88 | 1.4% | 32 | 32.5 | 0.98× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-field-tested) | 1 in 260 | $14.95 | 1.4% | 34 | 34.6 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 257 | $14.76 | 1.4% | 36 | 35.1 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 244 | $14.01 | 1.4% | 30 | 37.0 | 0.81× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 232 | $13.33 | 1.4% | 35 | 38.9 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) | 1 in 228 | $13.10 | 1.4% | 40 | 39.5 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $9.58 | 1.4% | 45 | 54.0 | 0.83× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 163 | $9.35 | 1.4% | 65 | 55.4 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 39 | $8.44 | 5.4% | 246 | 228.9 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $8.37 | 5.4% | 222 | 230.8 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $7.91 | 5.4% | 221 | 244.2 | 0.90× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $7.10 | 5.4% | 263 | 272.1 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $6.93 | 5.4% | 285 | 278.8 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $6.86 | 5.4% | 274 | 281.7 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $6.30 | 5.4% | 299 | 306.6 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $4.31 | 1.4% | 122 | 114.6 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $4.11 | 1.4% | 132 | 120.2 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $4.10 | 1.4% | 118 | 120.5 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $3.41 | 1.4% | 131 | 144.8 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $3.39 | 1.4% | 169 | 145.7 | 1.16× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $3.32 | 1.4% | 171 | 148.8 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $3.31 | 1.4% | 163 | 149.2 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $3.12 | 1.4% | 165 | 158.2 | 1.04× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.72 | 1.4% | 165 | 181.6 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $2.62 | 1.4% | 190 | 188.4 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $2.38 | 1.4% | 200 | 207.5 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.18 | 1.4% | 437 | 418.4 | 1.04× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.96 | 1.4% | 546 | 514.4 | 1.06× |
| [AUG \| Plague (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $0.92 | 0.3% | 126 | 117.6 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $0.91 | 0.3% | 125 | 118.9 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Plague (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-plague-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $0.69 | 0.3% | 190 | 156.8 | 1.21× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.47 | 0.3% | 225 | 230.2 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $0.45 | 0.3% | 248 | 240.5 | 1.03× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.35 | 0.3% | 307 | 309.2 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.34 | 0.3% | 293 | 318.2 | 0.92× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.26 | 0.3% | 379 | 416.1 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.19 | 0.3% | 555 | 569.5 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) | 15.1% | $0.08 | 0.3% | 1,334 | 1358.7 | 0.98× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/207`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=207)

[Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $4.50 $1.18 0.26x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-factory-new) [Green](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Green) $4.50 $1.18 0.26x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $4.50 $0.19 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-battle-scarred) [Green](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Green) $4.50 $0.26 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) [OSAMA](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/OSAMA) $4.50 $7.10 1.58x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) Hidden $4.50 $0.19 0.04x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-battle-scarred) [Kasb3rg](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kasb3rg) $4.50 $0.26 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-field-tested) Hidden $4.50 $0.35 0.08x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-factory-new) [D3NISS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/D3NISS) $4.50 $7.91 1.76x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) Hidden $4.50 $6.86 1.52x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $4.50 | 88.92% | 62 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 2.6% classified 9.6% Mythical 8.7% restricted 14.8% covert 0.3% gold 0.1% Classified 0.2% pink 0.7% blue 0.6% Rare 2.7% mil spec 12.5% violet 3.0% #4b69ff 22.8% light blue 6.3% #87c7ff 15.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt