---
title: "Bucket of tar case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Bucket of tar ($3.30) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.05% from 58 items with odds, observed 90.19% over 11.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/209
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Bucket of tar](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/209)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Bucket of tar

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/209?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/209?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/209) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/209?window=all)

Price · $3.30

Advertised RTP · 89.05% · EV $2.94 from 58 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.19% · 11.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.69% ±10.96 1,626 openings

7 days · 90.78% ±4.44 9,900 openings

30 days · 90.19% ±4.16 11.3K openings

since tracking started · 90.19% ±4.16 11.3K openings

77.0% 88.8% 100.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/209?window=24h) | 1,626 | 88.69% ±11.0 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/209?window=7d) | 9,900 | 90.78% ±4.44 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/209) | 11.3K | 90.19% ±4.16 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/209?window=all) | 11.3K | 90.19% ±4.16 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 58 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $237 | 1.3% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.66× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $150 | 1.3% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.36× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,571 | $139 | 1.3% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× |
| [P2000 \| Chainmail (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $131 | 1.3% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $95.88 | 1.3% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.30× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 2,041 | $79.71 | 1.3% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,041 | $79.49 | 1.3% | 9 | 5.5 | 1.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,724 | $67.57 | 1.3% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,064 | $41.33 | 1.3% | 9 | 10.6 | 0.85× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 1,031 | $40.38 | 1.3% | 8 | 11.0 | 0.73× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 372 | $26.07 | 2.4% | 30 | 30.4 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 357 | $25.00 | 2.4% | 32 | 31.6 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 347 | $24.33 | 2.4% | 34 | 32.5 | 1.04× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 318 | $22.30 | 2.4% | 30 | 35.5 | 0.85× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 313 | $21.89 | 2.4% | 38 | 36.2 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-battle-scarred) | 1 in 284 | $19.89 | 2.4% | 45 | 39.8 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 242 | $16.89 | 2.4% | 55 | 46.8 | 1.18× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) | 1 in 207 | $14.52 | 2.4% | 65 | 54.5 | 1.19× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 189 | $13.26 | 2.4% | 57 | 59.7 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) | 1 in 181 | $12.63 | 2.4% | 60 | 62.6 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-well-worn) | 1 in 177 | $12.40 | 2.4% | 60 | 63.8 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 174 | $12.20 | 2.4% | 64 | 64.9 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 149 | $10.40 | 2.4% | 73 | 76.0 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $9.30 | 2.4% | 88 | 85.1 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 127 | $8.92 | 2.4% | 87 | 88.7 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $7.68 | 2.4% | 93 | 102.9 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $5.84 | 2.1% | 126 | 122.0 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $5.43 | 2.1% | 119 | 131.3 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $5.34 | 2.1% | 139 | 133.4 | 1.04× |
| [FAMAS \| Hexane (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-well-worn) | 1 in 81 | $5.14 | 2.1% | 150 | 138.6 | 1.08× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $4.92 | 2.1% | 143 | 144.9 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $4.90 | 2.1% | 163 | 145.4 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $4.81 | 2.1% | 158 | 148.1 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $4.63 | 2.1% | 157 | 153.9 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $4.10 | 2.1% | 191 | 173.8 | 1.10× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $3.84 | 2.1% | 196 | 185.6 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $3.78 | 2.1% | 200 | 188.6 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $3.73 | 2.1% | 198 | 191.1 | 1.04× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $3.31 | 2.1% | 202 | 215.4 | 0.94× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $3.16 | 1.4% | 149 | 143.0 | 1.04× |
| [FAMAS \| Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $3.05 | 1.4% | 138 | 148.1 | 0.93× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $3.00 | 1.4% | 144 | 150.6 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $2.53 | 1.4% | 182 | 178.6 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $2.17 | 1.4% | 198 | 208.2 | 0.95× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $1.88 | 1.4% | 239 | 240.4 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Balance (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-balance-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $1.82 | 1.4% | 236 | 248.4 | 0.95× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $1.80 | 1.4% | 249 | 251.1 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $1.73 | 1.4% | 251 | 261.2 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Vendetta (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-vendetta-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $1.06 | 1.4% | 447 | 426.4 | 1.05× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.94 | 0.8% | 269 | 280.6 | 0.96× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.90 | 0.8% | 280 | 293.0 | 0.96× |
| [G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.68 | 0.8% | 353 | 387.7 | 0.91× |
| [G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.65 | 0.8% | 417 | 405.6 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $0.45 | 0.8% | 585 | 585.9 | 1.00× |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.30 | 0.8% | 863 | 878.8 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.29 | 0.8% | 891 | 909.1 | 0.98× |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.26 | 0.8% | 983 | 1014.0 | 0.97× |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-battle-scarred) | 11.1% | $0.20 | 0.8% | 1,319 | 1250.0 | 1.06× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/209`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $3.30 $237 71.89x 2026-11-10 23:46 UTC

[AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $3.30 $237 71.89x 2026-11-09 11:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) [Teuch](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Teuch) $3.30 $237 71.89x 2026-11-03 18:17 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=209)

[Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) [TfójMama](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Tf%C3%B3jMama) $3.30 $4.81 1.46x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) [-\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/-_-) $3.30 $1.88 0.57x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cartel-battle-scarred) [Whezzy\_outta\_hereskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Whezzy_outta_hereskins.army) $3.30 $0.45 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:45 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-hexane-factory-new) [adamnicho](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adamnicho) $3.30 $4.90 1.48x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-well-worn) [kenyzez](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kenyzez) $3.30 $5.34 1.62x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) [VaniLPL](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/VaniLPL) $3.30 $3.84 1.16x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) [adamnicho](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adamnicho) $3.30 $8.92 2.70x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[M249 | O.S.I.P.R. (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-battle-scarred) [kenyzez](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kenyzez) $3.30 $0.26 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[P2000 | Panther Camo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-factory-new) [VaniLPL](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/VaniLPL) $3.30 $4.92 1.49x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-field-tested) [adamnicho](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adamnicho) $3.30 $13.26 4.02x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $3.30 | 89.05% | 58 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed mil spec 22.0% covert 0.1% #4b69ff 37.8% restricted 8.3% industrial 5.7% classified 1.9% Legendary 1.2% #87c7ff 1.6% light blue 1.9% Mil Spec 1.3% Mythical 1.4% pink 1.6% Rare 4.3% #8847ff 1.9% blue 9.0% best hit $237 (71.89x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.05 on average: an expected loss of $10.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt