---
title: "Restricted case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Restricted ($2.40) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.98% from 48 items with odds, observed 88.79% over 47.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/21
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/21)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Restricted

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/21?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/21?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/21) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/21?window=all)

Price · $2.40

Advertised RTP · 88.98% · EV $2.14 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.79% · 47.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 10.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.21% ±7.99 6,522 openings

7 days · 89.10% ±3.27 39.1K openings

30 days · 88.79% ±2.97 47.2K openings

since tracking started · 88.79% ±2.97 47.2K openings

78.5% 87.3% 96.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/21?window=24h) | 6,522 | 87.21% ±7.99 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/21?window=7d) | 39.1K | 89.10% ±3.27 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/21) | 47.2K | 88.79% ±2.97 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/21?window=all) | 47.2K | 88.79% ±2.97 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 47.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,022 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $808 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $657 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $617 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $73.06 | 0.4% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $40.21 | 0.4% | 16 | 10.4 | 1.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $28.02 | 0.4% | 10 | 14.6 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $27.83 | 0.4% | 19 | 14.6 | 1.30× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 485 | $22.21 | 2.1% | 99 | 97.3 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 481 | $22.02 | 2.1% | 113 | 98.3 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 358 | $16.40 | 2.1% | 162 | 131.8 | 1.23× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 287 | $13.13 | 2.1% | 160 | 164.4 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 284 | $12.98 | 2.1% | 152 | 166.3 | 0.91× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 281 | $12.85 | 2.1% | 176 | 168.2 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $10.38 | 2.1% | 192 | 207.9 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $8.29 | 3.9% | 496 | 474.4 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 88 | $7.35 | 3.9% | 570 | 534.9 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $4.94 | 3.9% | 806 | 795.8 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.18 | 3.9% | 941 | 940.4 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $4.06 | 3.9% | 1,002 | 968.2 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $3.62 | 2.0% | 554 | 543.9 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $3.58 | 2.0% | 532 | 550.0 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $3.51 | 2.0% | 539 | 560.9 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $3.41 | 2.0% | 573 | 577.4 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $3.19 | 2.0% | 599 | 617.1 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $2.98 | 2.0% | 653 | 660.6 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $2.84 | 2.0% | 650 | 693.2 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-field-tested) | 1 in 65 | $2.72 | 2.0% | 725 | 723.9 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $2.60 | 2.0% | 765 | 757.5 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $2.57 | 2.0% | 812 | 766.0 | 1.06× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $2.42 | 2.0% | 806 | 813.7 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $2.40 | 2.0% | 800 | 820.3 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $1.98 | 2.4% | 1,236 | 1222.9 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $1.86 | 2.4% | 1,296 | 1301.8 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $1.80 | 2.4% | 1,311 | 1345.3 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $1.80 | 2.4% | 1,318 | 1345.3 | 0.98× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1.66 | 2.4% | 1,450 | 1458.7 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1.65 | 2.4% | 1,469 | 1467.7 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1.63 | 2.4% | 1,505 | 1485.7 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.55 | 2.4% | 1,532 | 1562.2 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $1.55 | 2.4% | 1,637 | 1562.2 | 1.05× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.39 | 2.4% | 1,752 | 1742.3 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.38 | 2.4% | 1,732 | 1755.0 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $1.10 | 2.4% | 2,173 | 2201.6 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.05 | 2.4% | 2,313 | 2306.5 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.64 | 2.4% | 3,759 | 3784.1 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.56 | 2.4% | 4,393 | 4324.7 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 11.7% | $0.47 | 2.6% | 5,450 | 5507.9 | 0.99× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/21`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested) [matis ♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/matis%20%E2%99%9B) $2.40 $657 273.9x 2026-11-04 22:57 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=21)

[Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) [-\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/-_-) $2.40 $13.13 5.47x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) [Macix](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Macix) $2.40 $2.40 1.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) [szeligator1](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/szeligator1) $2.40 $1.80 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[Glock-18 | Weasel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) [cicho cicho „skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cicho%20cicho%20%E2%80%9Eskins.army%E2%80%9D) $2.40 $1.98 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $2.40 $4.18 1.74x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-field-tested) [MANIUS.SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MANIUS.SKINS) $2.40 $0.64 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) Hidden $2.40 $1.66 0.69x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-minimal-wear) [MANIUS.SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MANIUS.SKINS) $2.40 $1.86 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[Glock-18 | Weasel (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-minimal-wear) [Razor skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Razor%20skins.army) $2.40 $1.98 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) [janekskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/janekskins.army) $2.40 $1.80 0.75x 2026-11-11 13:51 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $2.40 | 88.98% | 48 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 45.6% rare 0.0% violet 5.0% Mythical 13.4% #8847ff 36.1% best hit $657 (273.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.98 on average: an expected loss of $11.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt