---
title: "Chase case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Chase ($50.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.89% from 39 items with odds, observed 92.32% over 752 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/210
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Chase](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/210)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Chase

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/210?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/210?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/210) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/210?window=all)

Price · $50.00

Advertised RTP · 88.89% · EV $44.45 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.32% · 752 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.10% ±29.92 123 openings

7 days · 88.94% ±13.17 641 openings

30 days · 92.32% ±12.16 752 openings

since tracking started · 92.32% ±12.16 752 openings

60.5% 91.0% 121.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/210?window=24h) | 123 | 91.10% ±29.9 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/210?window=7d) | 641 | 88.94% ±13.2 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/210) | 752 | 92.32% ±12.2 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/210?window=all) | 752 | 92.32% ±12.2 | +0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 755 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 1,149 | $795 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 1,064 | $735 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 952 | $658 | 1.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 885 | $613 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 833 | $576 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 806 | $558 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 758 | $526 | 1.6% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 758 | $525 | 1.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) | 1 in 503 | $484 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.33× |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 485 | $469 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 369 | $357 | 2.2% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 356 | $343 | 2.2% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.94× |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-battle-scarred) | 1 in 271 | $261 | 2.2% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.44× |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-factory-new) | 1 in 251 | $242 | 2.2% | 6 | 3.0 | 1.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 238 | $230 | 2.2% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.32× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 216 | $208 | 2.2% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.71× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 211 | $204 | 2.2% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 198 | $191 | 2.2% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.52× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 192 | $186 | 2.2% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.25× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 187 | $181 | 2.2% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-minimal-wear) | 1 in 179 | $172 | 2.2% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.18× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 165 | $159 | 2.2% | 9 | 4.6 | 1.97× |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $138 | 2.2% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 142 | $137 | 2.2% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 129 | $124 | 2.2% | 4 | 5.9 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $120 | 2.2% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.83× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $116 | 2.2% | 10 | 6.3 | 1.60× |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $105 | 2.2% | 4 | 6.9 | 0.58× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $94.49 | 4.3% | 18 | 15.2 | 1.19× |
| [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $92.55 | 4.3% | 5 | 15.5 | 0.32× |
| [P2000 \| Chainmail (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $82.06 | 4.3% | 11 | 17.5 | 0.63× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $79.89 | 4.3% | 13 | 18.0 | 0.72× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $76.98 | 4.3% | 15 | 18.6 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $74.88 | 4.3% | 18 | 19.2 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $68.77 | 4.3% | 15 | 20.9 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $63.12 | 4.3% | 12 | 22.7 | 0.53× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $61.53 | 4.3% | 22 | 23.3 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $54.23 | 4.3% | 24 | 26.5 | 0.91× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) | 62.4% | $0.98 | 1.4% | 513 | 471.3 | 1.09× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/210`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [Maks\_GregorCASE.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Maks_GregorCASE.GIFT) $50.00 $887 17.74x 2026-11-07 04:37 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [-easy-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/-easy-) $50.00 $887 17.74x 2026-11-04 17:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $795 15.89x 2026-11-10 19:37 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $739 14.77x 2026-11-06 10:21 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 $638 12.77x 2026-11-06 15:00 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 $526 10.51x 2026-11-10 13:19 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 $525 10.49x 2026-11-11 14:25 UTC

[ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) [kru](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kru) $50.00 $519 10.39x 2026-11-08 08:42 UTC

[ESL One Katowice 2015 Challengers (Holo-Foil) other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-katowice-2015-challengers-holo-foil) [Maks\_GregorCASE.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Maks_GregorCASE.GIFT) $50.00 $519 10.39x 2026-11-07 04:38 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=210)

[Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $0.98 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) [olszi997](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/olszi997) $50.00 $0.98 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:02 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $0.98 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $0.98 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $50.00 $0.98 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $0.98 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $116 2.33x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $50.00 $68.77 1.38x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $0.98 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:49 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 $0.98 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $50.00 | 88.89% | 39 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $50.00 | 88.83% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 18.8% gold 0.2% restricted 1.2% base 0.2% #8847ff 0.4% classified 5.9% #d32ee6 1.4% pink 0.7% mil spec 3.0% #4b69ff 64.7% rare 3.5% best hit $887 (17.74x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.89 on average: an expected loss of $11.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt