---
title: "Bobby case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Bobby ($3.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.80% from 42 items with odds, observed 90.54% over 27.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/212
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:09Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Bobby](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/212)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Bobby

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/212?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/212?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/212) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/212?window=all)

Price · $3.00

Advertised RTP · 88.80% · EV $2.66 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.54% · 27.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.28% ±10.94 2,690 openings

7 days · 91.89% ±3.67 23.4K openings

30 days · 90.54% ±3.34 27.9K openings

since tracking started · 90.54% ±3.34 27.9K openings

85.5% 97.3% 109.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/212?window=24h) | 2,690 | 97.28% ±10.9 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/212?window=7d) | 23.4K | 91.89% ±3.67 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/212) | 27.9K | 90.54% ±3.34 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/212?window=all) | 27.9K | 90.54% ±3.34 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $444 | 2.2% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,632 | $158 | 2.3% | 14 | 10.6 | 1.32× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,639 | $97.81 | 2.2% | 14 | 17.1 | 0.82× |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) | 1 in 1,408 | $84.49 | 2.3% | 14 | 19.9 | 0.70× |
| [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,266 | $75.90 | 2.3% | 29 | 22.1 | 1.31× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 1,020 | $60.67 | 2.2% | 22 | 27.4 | 0.80× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 847 | $50.41 | 2.2% | 35 | 33.0 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-minimal-wear) | 1 in 704 | $41.84 | 2.2% | 35 | 39.7 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 585 | $34.90 | 2.2% | 43 | 47.8 | 0.90× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 559 | $33.36 | 2.2% | 37 | 50.1 | 0.74× |
| [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $28.81 | 1.5% | 36 | 39.2 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 699 | $28.31 | 1.5% | 30 | 40.0 | 0.75× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 1 in 658 | $26.64 | 1.5% | 44 | 42.5 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 654 | $26.41 | 1.5% | 50 | 42.8 | 1.17× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-royal-consorts-factory-new) | 1 in 633 | $25.67 | 1.5% | 46 | 44.2 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 552 | $22.34 | 1.5% | 51 | 50.6 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 382 | $15.41 | 1.5% | 85 | 73.3 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 368 | $14.84 | 1.5% | 76 | 76.1 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 340 | $13.74 | 1.5% | 73 | 82.3 | 0.89× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 329 | $13.30 | 1.5% | 82 | 85.1 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 318 | $12.89 | 1.5% | 69 | 87.9 | 0.79× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 294 | $11.89 | 1.5% | 104 | 95.1 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 292 | $11.84 | 1.5% | 101 | 95.7 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 266 | $10.76 | 1.5% | 93 | 105.2 | 0.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 229 | $9.27 | 1.5% | 593 | 122.0 | 4.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 207 | $8.37 | 1.5% | 131 | 135.2 | 0.97× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 207 | $8.36 | 1.5% | 120 | 135.4 | 0.89× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-factory-new) | 1 in 202 | $8.16 | 1.5% | 123 | 138.8 | 0.89× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 175 | $7.08 | 1.5% | 160 | 159.8 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 175 | $7.08 | 1.5% | 448 | 159.8 | 2.80× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 172 | $6.93 | 1.5% | 174 | 163.1 | 1.07× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 170 | $6.88 | 1.5% | 159 | 164.5 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 148 | $6.00 | 1.5% | 216 | 188.6 | 1.15× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $5.63 | 5.2% | 425 | 690.9 | 0.62× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $5.35 | 5.2% | 436 | 727.0 | 0.60× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $5.17 | 5.2% | 467 | 752.4 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $4.98 | 5.2% | 962 | 781.0 | 1.23× |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $4.74 | 5.2% | 464 | 820.4 | 0.57× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $4.42 | 5.2% | 1,009 | 880.0 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $4.28 | 5.2% | 1,094 | 908.9 | 1.20× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $3.64 | 5.2% | 1,226 | 1068.6 | 1.15× |
| [AUG \| Contractor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-battle-scarred) | 67.0% | $0.04 | 1.0% | 18,590 | 18754.1 | 0.99× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/212`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) [Jogo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jogo) $3.00 $623 207.7x 2026-11-05 22:38 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) [Norbi Jumbo skins](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Norbi%20Jumbo%20skins) $3.00 $444 148.1x 2026-11-07 23:45 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) [MorSwinek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MorSwinek) $3.00 $158 52.62x 2026-11-11 05:15 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) [penetratormichalekkkkk](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/penetratormichalekkkkk) $3.00 $158 52.62x 2026-11-10 15:47 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) [jewony](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/jewony) $3.00 $158 52.62x 2026-11-10 10:42 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) [Cichociemnyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Cichociemnyy) $3.00 $158 52.62x 2026-11-09 18:09 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.00 $158 52.62x 2026-11-09 12:25 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) [SzalonyKefix](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SzalonyKefix) $3.00 $158 52.62x 2026-11-09 09:31 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.00 $158 52.62x 2026-11-08 09:26 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=212)

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) [\[PRG\]DoLaR](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%5BPRG%5DDoLaR) $3.00 $4.28 1.43x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-battle-scarred) [Krystian\_napot](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Krystian_napot) $3.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-battle-scarred) [kenyzez](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kenyzez) $3.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-battle-scarred) [njigo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/njigo) $3.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $5.17 1.72x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) [Z3US skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Z3US%20skins.army) $3.00 $6.93 2.31x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[M4A4 | Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) [QnnQ1111skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/QnnQ1111skins.army) $3.00 $4.74 1.58x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-battle-scarred) [Majlo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Majlo) $3.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-battle-scarred) [dzidzia](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/dzidzia) $3.00 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $3.00 | 88.80% | 42 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $3.00 | 88.82% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% mil spec 1.2% classified 6.4% #d32ee6 0.3% restricted 9.6% #4b69ff 0.6% Mythical 0.2% #d32ce6 0.3% Legendary 1.1% #8847ff 3.3% Mil Spec Grade 0.5% pink 0.6% Restricted 2.7% industrial 2.9% violet 3.2% #777777 67.0% best hit $623 (207.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.80 on average: an expected loss of $11.20 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt