---
title: "Classified case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Classified ($4.80) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.08% from 41 items with odds, observed 91.38% over 12.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/23
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Classified](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/23)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Classified

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/23?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/23?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/23) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/23?window=all)

Price · $4.80

Advertised RTP · 89.08% · EV $4.28 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.38% · 12.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 96.95% ±8.58 1,729 openings

7 days · 92.36% ±3.15 10.8K openings

30 days · 91.38% ±2.86 12.9K openings

since tracking started · 91.38% ±2.86 12.9K openings

87.5% 96.8% 106.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/23?window=24h) | 1,729 | 96.95% ±8.58 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/23?window=7d) | 10.8K | 92.36% ±3.15 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/23) | 12.9K | 91.38% ±2.86 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/23?window=all) | 12.9K | 91.38% ±2.86 | +1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,345 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $298 | 0.7% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.32× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $240 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,846 | $110 | 0.7% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.30× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,852 | $52.73 | 0.7% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 1,389 | $39.75 | 0.7% | 7 | 9.3 | 0.75× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,136 | $32.55 | 0.7% | 9 | 11.4 | 0.79× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 465 | $31.04 | 1.6% | 15 | 27.8 | 0.54× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 465 | $31.04 | 1.6% | 34 | 27.8 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 461 | $30.69 | 1.6% | 38 | 28.1 | 1.35× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 459 | $30.61 | 1.6% | 20 | 28.2 | 0.71× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 448 | $29.88 | 1.6% | 16 | 28.9 | 0.55× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 413 | $27.50 | 1.6% | 29 | 31.3 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 357 | $23.84 | 1.6% | 38 | 36.2 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 334 | $22.29 | 1.6% | 36 | 38.7 | 0.93× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 294 | $19.60 | 1.6% | 30 | 44.0 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 433 | $17.99 | 1.0% | 20 | 29.9 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 364 | $15.09 | 1.0% | 22 | 35.6 | 0.62× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 346 | $14.36 | 1.0% | 24 | 37.4 | 0.64× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 344 | $14.27 | 1.0% | 20 | 37.7 | 0.53× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 338 | $14.04 | 1.0% | 21 | 38.3 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 336 | $13.95 | 1.0% | 22 | 38.6 | 0.57× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 334 | $13.88 | 1.0% | 19 | 38.7 | 0.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $13.87 | 1.0% | 17 | 38.8 | 0.44× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 331 | $13.74 | 1.0% | 15 | 39.1 | 0.38× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 330 | $13.72 | 1.0% | 16 | 39.2 | 0.41× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 329 | $13.65 | 1.0% | 20 | 39.3 | 0.51× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 323 | $13.40 | 1.0% | 23 | 40.1 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 291 | $12.09 | 1.0% | 25 | 44.5 | 0.56× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 277 | $11.52 | 1.0% | 14 | 46.7 | 0.30× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-factory-new) | 1 in 275 | $11.44 | 1.0% | 23 | 47.0 | 0.49× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 265 | $11.00 | 1.0% | 40 | 48.9 | 0.82× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $8.01 | 5.8% | 348 | 403.9 | 0.86× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $4.81 | 5.8% | 649 | 672.6 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $4.81 | 5.8% | 632 | 672.6 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $4.07 | 5.8% | 1,267 | 794.9 | 1.59× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $3.81 | 8.3% | 1,354 | 1202.3 | 1.13× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-well-worn) | 10.7% | $3.32 | 8.3% | 1,400 | 1379.8 | 1.01× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 11.8% | $2.99 | 8.3% | 762 | 1532.0 | 0.50× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 15.6% | $2.27 | 8.3% | 2,204 | 2018.0 | 1.09× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) | 25.5% | $1.55 | 9.2% | 3,699 | 3299.1 | 1.12× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/23`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) Hidden $4.80 $298 62.16x 2026-11-10 20:56 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) Hidden $4.80 $298 62.16x 2026-11-10 12:01 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) [auxtwq](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/auxtwq) $4.80 $298 62.16x 2026-11-10 11:52 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=23)

[P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) Hidden $4.80 $1.55 0.32x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) [マッコ MTS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E3%83%9E%E3%83%83%E3%82%B3%20MTS) $4.80 $4.81 1.00x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-well-worn) Hidden $4.80 $3.32 0.69x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) [マッコ MTS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E3%83%9E%E3%83%83%E3%82%B3%20MTS) $4.80 $3.81 0.79x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) [Mati -\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mati%20-_-) $4.80 $1.55 0.32x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) Hidden $4.80 $3.81 0.79x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) [ducek2001skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ducek2001skins.army) $4.80 $1.55 0.32x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) Hidden $4.80 $3.81 0.79x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) [borowieckiigor3](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/borowieckiigor3) $4.80 $2.99 0.62x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC

[AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-field-tested) Hidden $4.80 $3.81 0.79x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $4.80 | 89.08% | 41 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $4.80 | 89.11% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 62.9% pink 0.4% #d32ee6 10.9% Legendary 25.9% best hit $298 (62.16x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.08 on average: an expected loss of $10.92 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt