---
title: "Svert case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Svert ($14.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.96% from 52 items with odds, observed 85.92% over 2,133 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/234
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Svert](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/234)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Svert

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/234?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/234?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/234) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/234?window=all)

Price · $14.00

Advertised RTP · 88.96% · EV $12.45 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.92% · 2,133 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.51% ±25.85 285 openings

7 days · 88.44% ±10.30 1,794 openings

30 days · 85.92% ±9.44 2,133 openings

since tracking started · 85.92% ±9.44 2,133 openings

52.0% 78.5% 105.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/234?window=24h) | 285 | 78.51% ±25.8 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/234?window=7d) | 1,794 | 88.44% ±10.3 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/234) | 2,133 | 85.92% ±9.44 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/234?window=all) | 2,133 | 85.92% ±9.44 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,135 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,439 | $667 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,923 | $523 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 1,053 | $288 | 2.2% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-minimal-wear) | 1 in 629 | $173 | 2.2% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 495 | $136 | 2.2% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 493 | $135 | 2.2% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $123 | 3.4% | 5 | 7.5 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 268 | $115 | 3.4% | 4 | 8.0 | 0.50× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 261 | $112 | 3.4% | 2 | 8.2 | 0.24× |
| [MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-factory-new) | 1 in 213 | $91.33 | 3.4% | 6 | 10.0 | 0.60× |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 194 | $83.19 | 3.4% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× |
| [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 194 | $83.19 | 3.4% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-battle-scarred) | 1 in 185 | $79.44 | 3.4% | 8 | 11.5 | 0.69× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 181 | $77.68 | 3.4% | 7 | 11.8 | 0.59× |
| [MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-field-tested) | 1 in 179 | $76.86 | 3.4% | 12 | 11.9 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $66.12 | 3.4% | 14 | 13.9 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 134 | $57.63 | 3.4% | 7 | 15.9 | 0.44× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 141 | $51.34 | 2.9% | 16 | 15.1 | 1.06× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 134 | $48.87 | 2.9% | 21 | 15.9 | 1.32× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $47.37 | 2.9% | 16 | 16.4 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 122 | $44.45 | 2.9% | 11 | 17.5 | 0.63× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 122 | $44.25 | 2.9% | 20 | 17.5 | 1.14× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $37.75 | 2.9% | 18 | 20.6 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $34.93 | 2.9% | 9 | 22.2 | 0.40× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $34.89 | 2.9% | 17 | 22.2 | 0.76× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $32.53 | 2.9% | 13 | 23.9 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $30.56 | 2.9% | 29 | 25.4 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $30.00 | 2.9% | 23 | 25.9 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 198 | $27.56 | 1.1% | 28 | 10.8 | 2.60× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 198 | $27.46 | 1.1% | 23 | 10.8 | 2.13× |
| [P90 \| Tiger Pit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 171 | $23.72 | 1.1% | 8 | 12.5 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $22.33 | 1.1% | 18 | 13.3 | 1.36× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $20.86 | 1.1% | 14 | 14.2 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 149 | $20.72 | 1.1% | 16 | 14.3 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 148 | $20.54 | 1.1% | 21 | 14.4 | 1.46× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 145 | $20.06 | 1.1% | 20 | 14.8 | 1.35× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $18.15 | 1.1% | 21 | 16.3 | 1.29× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 243 | $13.64 | 0.5% | 24 | 8.8 | 2.74× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 221 | $12.36 | 0.4% | 29 | 9.7 | 3.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 190 | $10.67 | 0.4% | 17 | 11.2 | 1.52× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $4.63 | 0.4% | 37 | 25.8 | 1.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $2.08 | 0.4% | 58 | 57.5 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.41 | 0.4% | 68 | 84.8 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.40 | 0.4% | 60 | 85.4 | 0.70× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $1.36 | 0.4% | 74 | 87.9 | 0.84× |
| [AUG \| Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.29 | 0.4% | 71 | 92.7 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $1.02 | 0.4% | 169 | 117.2 | 1.44× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.98 | 0.4% | 101 | 122.0 | 0.83× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.79 | 0.4% | 150 | 151.4 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.67 | 0.4% | 194 | 178.4 | 1.09× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 11.2% | $0.50 | 0.4% | 203 | 239.1 | 0.85× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) | 17.9% | $0.32 | 0.5% | 423 | 382.4 | 1.11× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/234`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.00 $523 37.33x 2026-11-06 18:43 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=234)

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.00 $0.32 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) [wiciu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/wiciu) $14.00 $1.29 0.09x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.00 $0.32 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-field-tested) Hidden $14.00 $1.29 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) Hidden $14.00 $2.08 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) [MIOD MALINA](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MIOD%20MALINA) $14.00 $0.32 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-factory-new) Hidden $14.00 $0.98 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) Hidden $14.00 $0.67 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) [FrankStienskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/FrankStienskins.army) $14.00 $32.53 2.32x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) Hidden $14.00 $0.79 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $14.00 | 88.96% | 52 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $14.00 | 89.05% | 52 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #8847ff 8.7% restricted 9.2% classified 9.6% extraordinary 0.4% covert 4.9% mil spec 12.2% Mythical 4.9% #4b69ff 24.7% red 1.0% #d32ce6 0.7% pink 1.8% Rare 15.1% uncommon 7.1% best hit $523 (37.33x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.96 on average: an expected loss of $11.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt