--- title: "50% Cyrex case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "50% Cyrex ($4.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.20% from 10 items with odds, observed 82.63% over 20.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/24 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [50% Cyrex](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/24) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 50% Cyrex A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/24?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/24?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/24) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/24?window=all) Price · $4.00 Advertised RTP · 83.20% · EV $3.33 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.63% · 20.4K openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81.95% ±5.24 2,915 openings 7 days · 82.26% ±2.17 16.9K openings 30 days · 82.63% ±1.98 20.4K openings since tracking started · 82.63% ±1.98 20.4K openings 76.0% 82.0% 88.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/24?window=24h) | 2,915 | 81.95% ±5.24 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/24?window=7d) | 16.9K | 82.26% ±2.17 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/24) | 20.4K | 82.63% ±1.98 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/24?window=all) | 20.4K | 82.63% ±1.98 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $33.99 | 30.6% | 606 | 614.7 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $5.98 | 12.6% | 1,435 | 1434.3 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.59 | 6.9% | 997 | 1024.5 | 0.97× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $3.99 | 13.2% | 2,259 | 2253.9 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 14.0% | $3.94 | 16.6% | 2,818 | 2868.6 | 0.98× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 15.0% | $3.88 | 17.5% | 3,106 | 3073.5 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.31 | 0.7% | 1,363 | 1434.3 | 0.95× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.26 | 0.8% | 2,090 | 2049.0 | 1.02× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-well-worn) | 12.0% | $0.20 | 0.7% | 2,554 | 2458.8 | 1.04× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 16.0% | $0.10 | 0.5% | 3,262 | 3278.4 | 0.99× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/24`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=24) [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $0.10 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) [xtiamo6skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/xtiamo6skins.army) $4.00 $3.99 1.00x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) [Dropzik koks 121 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Dropzik%20koks%20121%20skins.army) $4.00 $3.88 0.97x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-well-worn) Hidden $4.00 $0.20 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) [OSAMA](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/OSAMA) $4.00 $3.88 0.97x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $0.10 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) [Televizorlg skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Televizorlg%20skins.army) $4.00 $3.99 1.00x 2026-11-11 16:54 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) Hidden $4.00 $3.88 0.97x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) [Dropzik koks 121 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Dropzik%20koks%20121%20skins.army) $4.00 $3.99 1.00x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-well-worn) Hidden $4.00 $3.94 0.99x 2026-11-11 16:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $4.00 | 83.20% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 36.0% industrial 31.0% #8847ff 14.0% #87c7ff 19.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.20 on average: an expected loss of $16.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt