--- title: "50% Water Elemental case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "50% Water Elemental ($13.40) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.32% from 14 items with odds, observed 82.36% over 2,745 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/25 rendered: 2026-11-11T21:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [50% Water Elemental](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/25) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 50% Water Elemental A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/25?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/25?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/25) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/25?window=all) Price · $13.40 Advertised RTP · 84.32% · EV $11.30 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.36% · 2,745 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 49.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 84.22% ±5.60 819 openings 7 days · 82.61% ±3.21 2,485 openings 30 days · 82.36% ±3.06 2,745 openings since tracking started · 82.36% ±3.06 2,745 openings 78.0% 84.3% 90.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/25?window=24h) | 819 | 84.22% ±5.60 | −0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/25?window=7d) | 2,485 | 82.61% ±3.21 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/25) | 2,745 | 82.36% ±3.06 | −1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/25?window=all) | 2,745 | 82.36% ±3.06 | −1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,745 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $51.36 | 0.7% | 8 | 4.1 | 1.94× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $23.78 | 1.7% | 19 | 22.0 | 0.87× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $23.72 | 6.3% | 82 | 82.3 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $23.21 | 10.3% | 130 | 137.2 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $21.97 | 5.9% | 65 | 82.6 | 0.79× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 37.5% | $21.80 | 72.4% | 1,022 | 1029.4 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 185 | $21.08 | 1.0% | 9 | 14.8 | 0.61× | | [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $3.03 | 0.7% | 65 | 68.6 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.76 | 0.1% | 26 | 27.4 | 0.95× | | [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.36 | 0.2% | 119 | 137.2 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $0.31 | 0.0% | 40 | 41.2 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.28 | 0.1% | 146 | 137.2 | 1.06× | | [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 17.5% | $0.26 | 0.4% | 511 | 480.4 | 1.06× | | [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) | 17.5% | $0.25 | 0.4% | 503 | 480.4 | 1.05× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/25`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=25) [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) [gwizdak](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/gwizdak) $13.40 $0.26 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $13.40 $0.31 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) Hidden $13.40 $0.28 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $13.40 $21.80 1.63x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) [gwizdak](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/gwizdak) $13.40 $23.21 1.73x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $13.40 $21.80 1.63x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $13.40 $21.80 1.63x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $13.40 $21.80 1.63x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) [gwizdak](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/gwizdak) $13.40 $21.80 1.63x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) Hidden $13.40 $0.25 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $13.40 | 84.32% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 8.2% Legendary 0.8% #d32ee6 3.5% pink 37.5% Rare 2.5% mil spec 42.5% #4b69ff 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.32 on average: an expected loss of $15.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt