--- title: "50% Mecha Industries case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "50% Mecha Industries ($70.20) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.27% from 10 items with odds, observed 81.48% over 400 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/26 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [50% Mecha Industries](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/26) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 50% Mecha Industries A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/26?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/26?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/26) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/26?window=all) Price · $70.20 Advertised RTP · 84.27% · EV $59.15 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.48% · 400 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 81.32% ±9.70 301 openings 30 days · 81.48% ±8.42 400 openings since tracking started · 81.48% ±8.42 400 openings 12.5% 65.5% 118.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/26?window=24h) | 10 | 65.64% ±52.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/26?window=7d) | 301 | 81.32% ±9.70 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/26) | 400 | 81.48% ±8.42 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/26?window=all) | 400 | 81.48% ±8.42 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 400 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $186 | 3.1% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $123 | 10.4% | 19 | 20.0 | 0.95× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $121 | 8.2% | 20 | 16.0 | 1.25× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 15.0% | $120 | 30.4% | 59 | 60.0 | 0.98× | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $113 | 47.8% | 94 | 100.0 | 0.94× | | [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $15.75 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $0.28 | 0.0% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× | | [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 22.5% | $0.20 | 0.1% | 87 | 90.0 | 0.97× | | [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 25 | 16.0 | 1.56× | | [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 22.5% | $0.15 | 0.1% | 90 | 90.0 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/26`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=26) [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) Hidden $70.20 $0.20 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) Hidden $70.20 $121 1.72x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $70.20 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) [-easy-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/-easy-) $70.20 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) Hidden $70.20 $113 1.61x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $70.20 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) Hidden $70.20 $113 1.61x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $70.20 $0.15 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC [M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) Hidden $70.20 $113 1.61x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) [ku](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ku) $70.20 $0.20 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $70.20 | 84.27% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $85.90 | 84.23% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 16.0% red 30.0% Ancient 4.0% industrial 22.6% Uncommon 0.9% Industrial Grade 26.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.27 on average: an expected loss of $15.73 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt