---
title: "Fire&Water case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Fire&Water ($65.20) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.62% from 20 items with odds, observed 80.26% over 436 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/261
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Fire&Water](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/261)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Fire&Water

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/261?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/261?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/261) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/261?window=all)

Price · $65.20

Advertised RTP · 86.62% · EV $56.47 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.26% · 436 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 64 openings · below min

7 days · 79.23% ±10.58 417 openings

30 days · 80.26% ±10.34 436 openings

since tracking started · 80.26% ±10.34 436 openings

48.5% 76.0% 103.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/261?window=24h) | 64 | 76.01% ±27.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/261?window=7d) | 417 | 79.23% ±10.6 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/261) | 436 | 80.26% ±10.3 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/261?window=all) | 436 | 80.26% ±10.3 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 444 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $284 | 25.2% | 19 | 22.2 | 0.86× |
| [Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-aqua-terrace-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $164 | 14.5% | 14 | 22.2 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $147 | 13.0% | 20 | 22.2 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $140 | 12.4% | 25 | 22.2 | 1.13× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $74.25 | 6.6% | 23 | 22.2 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $70.53 | 6.2% | 26 | 22.2 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $49.96 | 4.4% | 20 | 22.2 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $44.80 | 4.0% | 27 | 22.2 | 1.22× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $28.64 | 2.5% | 20 | 22.2 | 0.90× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $24.07 | 2.1% | 20 | 22.2 | 0.90× |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $21.21 | 1.9% | 25 | 22.2 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $19.13 | 1.7% | 18 | 22.2 | 0.81× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $15.37 | 1.4% | 25 | 22.2 | 1.13× |
| [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $15.09 | 1.3% | 23 | 22.2 | 1.04× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.49 | 1.1% | 32 | 22.2 | 1.44× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.02 | 0.7% | 20 | 22.2 | 0.90× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.39 | 0.4% | 18 | 22.2 | 0.81× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.71 | 0.2% | 25 | 22.2 | 1.13× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.95 | 0.2% | 22 | 22.2 | 0.99× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.16 | 0.1% | 22 | 22.2 | 0.99× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/261`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=261)

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) Hidden $65.20 $15.37 0.24x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $65.20 $15.09 0.23x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $65.20 $19.13 0.29x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) [-easy-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/-easy-) $65.20 $15.37 0.24x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.20 $28.64 0.44x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) Hidden $65.20 $49.96 0.77x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

[G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $65.20 $12.49 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

[FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $65.20 $15.09 0.23x 2026-11-11 15:03 UTC

[G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-factory-new) Hidden $65.20 $12.49 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:03 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $65.20 $49.96 0.77x 2026-11-11 15:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $65.20 | 86.62% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 20.0% #4b69ff 10.0% classified 15.0% restricted 35.0% industrial 5.0% #d32ce6 5.0% mil spec 5.0% #8847ff 5.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.62 on average: an expected loss of $13.38 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt