--- title: "CheoMeo case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "CheoMeo ($4.70) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.67% from 20 items with odds, observed 84.67% over 7,966 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/265 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [CheoMeo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/265) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · CheoMeo A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/265?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/265?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/265) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/265?window=all) Price · $4.70 Advertised RTP · 86.67% · EV $4.07 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.67% · 7,966 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.70% ±6.29 1,100 openings 7 days · 84.24% ±2.53 6,773 openings 30 days · 84.67% ±2.34 7,966 openings since tracking started · 84.67% ±2.34 7,966 openings 76.0% 82.8% 89.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/265?window=24h) | 1,100 | 82.70% ±6.29 | −1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/265?window=7d) | 6,773 | 84.24% ±2.53 | −1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/265) | 7,966 | 84.67% ±2.34 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/265?window=all) | 7,966 | 84.67% ±2.34 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,966 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $19.90 | 24.4% | 373 | 398.3 | 0.94× | | [MP9 \| Airlock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $13.33 | 16.4% | 380 | 398.3 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Acheron (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.94 | 9.7% | 384 | 398.3 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.11 | 8.7% | 422 | 398.3 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $6.71 | 8.2% | 400 | 398.3 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $6.25 | 7.7% | 383 | 398.3 | 0.96× | | [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $5.74 | 7.0% | 395 | 398.3 | 0.99× | | [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.95 | 4.8% | 416 | 398.3 | 1.04× | | [AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.73 | 2.1% | 375 | 398.3 | 0.94× | | [P90 \| Chopper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $1.53 | 1.9% | 418 | 398.3 | 1.05× | | [AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.51 | 1.9% | 388 | 398.3 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.14 | 1.4% | 375 | 398.3 | 0.94× | | [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.79 | 1.0% | 379 | 398.3 | 0.95× | | [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.78 | 1.0% | 413 | 398.3 | 1.04× | | [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.68 | 0.8% | 394 | 398.3 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.65 | 0.8% | 429 | 398.3 | 1.08× | | [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.59 | 0.7% | 387 | 398.3 | 0.97× | | [SCAR-20 \| Assault (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.51 | 0.6% | 413 | 398.3 | 1.04× | | [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.35 | 0.4% | 421 | 398.3 | 1.06× | | [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.28 | 0.3% | 421 | 398.3 | 1.06× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/265`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=265) [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.70 $6.25 1.33x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [P90 | Chopper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-battle-scarred) [Serek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Serek) $4.70 $1.53 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.70 $6.25 1.33x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) [Serek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Serek) $4.70 $0.78 0.17x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.70 $6.25 1.33x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) [Serek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Serek) $4.70 $6.71 1.43x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.70 $13.33 2.84x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) [Serek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Serek) $4.70 $19.90 4.23x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [P90 | Chopper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.70 $1.53 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC [SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) [Serek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Serek) $4.70 $19.90 4.23x 2026-11-11 16:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $4.70 | 86.67% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 10.0% #d32ee6 10.0% Rare 25.0% rare 5.0% mil spec 10.0% #8847ff 15.0% restricted 10.0% #4b69ff 10.0% blue 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.67 on average: an expected loss of $13.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt