---
title: "Sweet16 case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sweet16 ($83.70) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.90% from 16 items with odds, observed 74.93% over 514 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/266
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Sweet16](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/266)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Sweet16

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/266?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/266?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/266) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/266?window=all)

Price · $83.70

Advertised RTP · 86.90% · EV $72.74 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 74.93% · 514 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.20% ±32.25 110 openings

7 days · 77.75% ±15.79 459 openings

30 days · 74.93% ±14.92 514 openings

since tracking started · 74.93% ±14.92 514 openings

51.5% 84.3% 117.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/266?window=24h) | 110 | 84.20% ±32.3 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/266?window=7d) | 459 | 77.75% ±15.8 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/266) | 514 | 74.93% ±14.9 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/266?window=all) | 514 | 74.93% ±14.9 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 514 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $549 | 47.1% | 26 | 32.1 | 0.81× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $310 | 26.6% | 28 | 32.1 | 0.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $106 | 9.1% | 32 | 32.1 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $90.87 | 7.8% | 23 | 32.1 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $26.28 | 2.3% | 34 | 32.1 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $21.44 | 1.8% | 37 | 32.1 | 1.15× |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $16.93 | 1.5% | 41 | 32.1 | 1.28× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $16.62 | 1.4% | 36 | 32.1 | 1.12× |
| [1st Lieutenant Farlow \| SWAT agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/1st-lieutenant-farlow-swat) | 1 in 16 | $11.26 | 1.0% | 29 | 32.1 | 0.90× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $10.36 | 0.9% | 32 | 32.1 | 1.00× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.77 | 0.2% | 30 | 32.1 | 0.93× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.61 | 0.1% | 31 | 32.1 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.85 | 0.1% | 33 | 32.1 | 1.03× |
| [MP7 \| Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.53 | 0.0% | 34 | 32.1 | 1.06× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.45 | 0.0% | 34 | 32.1 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.19 | 0.0% | 34 | 32.1 | 1.06× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/266`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) [Zazazaza❤️❤ skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Zazazaza%E2%9D%A4%EF%B8%8F%E2%9D%A4%20%20skins.army) $83.70 $549 6.56x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) Hidden $83.70 $549 6.56x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) Hidden $83.70 $549 6.56x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) Hidden $83.70 $549 6.56x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) Hidden $83.70 $549 6.56x 2026-11-11 01:29 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) Hidden $83.70 $549 6.56x 2026-11-10 23:34 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) Hidden $83.70 $549 6.56x 2026-11-10 23:21 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) [saju](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/saju) $83.70 $549 6.56x 2026-11-10 22:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) Hidden $83.70 $549 6.56x 2026-11-10 17:45 UTC

[M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) [saju](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/saju) $83.70 $549 6.56x 2026-11-10 15:10 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=266)

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) Hidden $83.70 $0.19 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC

[1st Lieutenant Farlow | SWAT agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/1st-lieutenant-farlow-swat) [Diabeuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Diabeuu) $83.70 $11.26 0.13x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC

[AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $83.70 $26.28 0.31x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-minimal-wear) [Diabeuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Diabeuu) $83.70 $1.61 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC

[MP7 | Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) Hidden $83.70 $0.53 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[MP7 | Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) Hidden $83.70 $0.53 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[Glock-18 | High Beam (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-high-beam-factory-new) [PatrickStar](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PatrickStar) $83.70 $0.19 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC

[MP7 | Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) Hidden $83.70 $0.53 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) Hidden $83.70 $106 1.27x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

[P250 | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-field-tested) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $83.70 $16.93 0.20x 2026-11-11 15:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $83.70 | 86.90% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 18.8% restricted 6.3% Legendary 6.3% mil spec 12.5% #4b69ff 6.3% Rare 6.3% pink 6.3% classified 6.3% violet 12.5% Mythical 12.5% light blue 6.3% best hit $549 (6.56x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.90 on average: an expected loss of $13.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt