---
title: "New Era case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "New Era ($8.20) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 85.64% from 20 items with odds, observed 84.83% over 2,956 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/268
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [New Era](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/268)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · New Era

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/268?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/268?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/268) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/268?window=all)

Price · $8.20

Advertised RTP · 85.64% · EV $7.02 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.83% · 2,956 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.05% ±10.38 405 openings

7 days · 85.67% ±4.02 2,763 openings

30 days · 84.83% ±3.94 2,956 openings

since tracking started · 84.83% ±3.94 2,956 openings

66.0% 78.3% 90.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/268?window=24h) | 405 | 77.05% ±10.4 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/268?window=7d) | 2,763 | 85.67% ±4.02 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/268) | 2,956 | 84.83% ±3.94 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/268?window=all) | 2,956 | 84.83% ±3.94 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,965 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $30.97 | 22.1% | 129 | 148.2 | 0.87× |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $27.64 | 19.7% | 154 | 148.2 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $18.84 | 13.4% | 140 | 148.2 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $11.88 | 8.5% | 177 | 148.2 | 1.19× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $8.22 | 5.9% | 150 | 148.2 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $7.55 | 5.4% | 164 | 148.2 | 1.11× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $6.48 | 4.6% | 145 | 148.2 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6.11 | 4.4% | 143 | 148.2 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $6.00 | 4.3% | 159 | 148.2 | 1.07× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $5.89 | 4.2% | 155 | 148.2 | 1.05× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.61 | 2.6% | 143 | 148.2 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.50 | 1.1% | 131 | 148.2 | 0.88× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.32 | 0.9% | 136 | 148.2 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.01 | 0.7% | 141 | 148.2 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.77 | 0.5% | 161 | 148.2 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.72 | 0.5% | 148 | 148.2 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.72 | 0.5% | 149 | 148.2 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.67 | 0.5% | 161 | 148.2 | 1.09× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.45 | 0.3% | 120 | 148.2 | 0.81× |
| [P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.10 | 0.1% | 159 | 148.2 | 1.07× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/268`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=268)

[AWP | POP AWP (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-field-tested) [Skins skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Skins%20skins.army) $8.20 $6.00 0.73x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) [DoRo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DoRo) $8.20 $7.55 0.92x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC

[USP-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.20 $0.72 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.20 $8.22 1.00x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) [マッコ MTS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E3%83%9E%E3%83%83%E3%82%B3%20MTS) $8.20 $7.55 0.92x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[Glock-18 | Warhawk (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-warhawk-minimal-wear) [Mati -\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mati%20-_-) $8.20 $0.72 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) [hoox](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/hoox) $8.20 $7.55 0.92x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) [Mati -\_-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mati%20-_-) $8.20 $0.77 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) [hoox](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/hoox) $8.20 $0.77 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:25 UTC

[AK-47 | The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.20 $5.89 0.72x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 11:42 UTC | $8.20 | 85.64% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $10.40 | 85.98% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 5.0% Restricted 5.0% pink 10.0% classified 15.0% Mythical 15.0% Legendary 5.0% #d32ee6 5.0% #8847ff 15.0% Mil Spec Grade 5.0% Rare 10.0% blue 5.0% #4b69ff 5.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.64 on average: an expected loss of $14.36 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt