--- title: "Heaps case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Heaps ($29.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.48% from 25 items with odds, observed 93.03% over 563 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/269 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Heaps](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/269) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Heaps A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/269?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/269?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/269) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/269?window=all) Price · $29.50 Advertised RTP · 86.48% · EV $25.51 from 25 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.03% · 563 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 98 openings · below min 7 days · 92.57% ±11.16 472 openings 30 days · 93.03% ±10.21 563 openings since tracking started · 93.03% ±10.21 563 openings 61.5% 86.8% 112.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/269?window=24h) | 98 | 86.71% ±24.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/269?window=7d) | 472 | 92.57% ±11.2 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/269) | 563 | 93.03% ±10.2 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/269?window=all) | 563 | 93.03% ±10.2 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 563 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $146 | 22.9% | 25 | 22.5 | 1.11× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $97.85 | 15.3% | 27 | 22.5 | 1.20× | | [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $94.48 | 14.8% | 21 | 22.5 | 0.93× | | [P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $71.85 | 11.3% | 26 | 22.5 | 1.15× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $28.15 | 4.4% | 33 | 22.5 | 1.47× | | [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $26.76 | 4.2% | 18 | 22.5 | 0.80× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $25.50 | 4.0% | 18 | 22.5 | 0.80× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $25.49 | 4.0% | 25 | 22.5 | 1.11× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $24.75 | 3.9% | 24 | 22.5 | 1.07× | | [P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $22.31 | 3.5% | 26 | 22.5 | 1.15× | | [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $15.83 | 2.5% | 27 | 22.5 | 1.20× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $8.56 | 1.3% | 22 | 22.5 | 0.98× | | [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $8.16 | 1.3% | 22 | 22.5 | 0.98× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $7.06 | 1.1% | 14 | 22.5 | 0.62× | | [MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $6.23 | 1.0% | 20 | 22.5 | 0.89× | | [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.67 | 0.9% | 22 | 22.5 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.48 | 0.9% | 18 | 22.5 | 0.80× | | [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.25 | 0.7% | 19 | 22.5 | 0.84× | | [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $3.76 | 0.6% | 27 | 22.5 | 1.20× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.44 | 0.5% | 17 | 22.5 | 0.75× | | [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.95 | 0.3% | 33 | 22.5 | 1.47× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-ice-cap-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.50 | 0.2% | 13 | 22.5 | 0.58× | | [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.36 | 0.2% | 20 | 22.5 | 0.89× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.81 | 0.1% | 22 | 22.5 | 0.98× | | [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.43 | 0.1% | 24 | 22.5 | 1.07× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/269`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=269) [AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) Hidden $29.50 $146 4.95x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) [buraś](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/bura%C5%9B) $29.50 $97.85 3.32x 2026-11-11 12:54 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.50 $25.50 0.86x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) [ponton](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ponton) $29.50 $26.76 0.91x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-factory-new) Hidden $29.50 $5.67 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC [Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-factory-new) [ponton](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ponton) $29.50 $5.67 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:34 UTC [Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-factory-new) Hidden $29.50 $5.67 0.19x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $29.50 $3.44 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) Hidden $29.50 $26.76 0.91x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC [R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $29.50 $3.44 0.12x 2026-11-11 12:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $29.50 | 86.48% | 25 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.0% red 4.0% classified 32.0% violet 4.0% #d32ce6 4.0% mil spec 16.0% restricted 8.0% #8847ff 8.0% Legendary 4.0% Mythical 4.0% blue 4.0% Rare 4.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.48 on average: an expected loss of $13.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt