--- title: "50% Frontside Misty case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "50% Frontside Misty ($10.60) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 83.94% from 10 items with odds, observed 80.99% over 4,250 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/27 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [50% Frontside Misty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/27) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 50% Frontside Misty A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/27?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/27?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/27) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/27?window=all) Price · $10.60 Advertised RTP · 83.94% · EV $8.90 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.99% · 4,250 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 50.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.30% ±7.25 624 openings 7 days · 82.22% ±3.04 3,591 openings 30 days · 80.99% ±2.82 4,250 openings since tracking started · 80.99% ±2.82 4,250 openings 75.5% 83.3% 91.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 83.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.17% – 83.81%, 4,250 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/27?window=24h) | 624 | 83.30% ±7.25 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/27?window=7d) | 3,591 | 82.22% ±3.04 | −1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/27) | 4,250 | 80.99% ±2.82 | −2.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/27?window=all) | 4,250 | 80.99% ±2.82 | −2.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,254 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $117 | 2.6% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.71× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $30.17 | 1.7% | 26 | 21.3 | 1.22× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $17.70 | 4.0% | 78 | 85.1 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-well-worn) | 14.0% | $17.15 | 27.0% | 571 | 595.6 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 33.3% | $16.93 | 63.4% | 1,381 | 1416.6 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $6.83 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 23.5% | $0.28 | 0.7% | 999 | 999.7 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $0.28 | 0.0% | 78 | 63.6 | 1.23× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $0.23 | 0.0% | 59 | 63.6 | 0.93× | | [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 23.5% | $0.19 | 0.5% | 1,055 | 999.7 | 1.06× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/27`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=27) [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $10.60 $0.28 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $10.60 $0.28 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [❤Emilka❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%9D%A4Emilka%E2%9D%A4) $10.60 $0.19 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.60 $0.19 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $10.60 $0.28 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [❤Emilka❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%9D%A4Emilka%E2%9D%A4) $10.60 $0.28 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:21 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [Slowik (COACH) skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Slowik%20%28COACH%29%20skins.army) $10.60 $0.19 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [.#00](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/.%2300) $10.60 $0.19 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [matvijko skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/matvijko%20skins.army) $10.60 $0.28 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC [AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $10.60 $0.28 0.03x 2026-11-11 16:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 11:42 UTC | $10.60 | 83.94% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $11.10 | 83.96% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 50.0% industrial 3.0% Uncommon 23.5% #87c7ff 23.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.94 on average: an expected loss of $16.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt