--- title: "Mosby case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mosby ($6.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 22 items with odds, observed 85.67% over 5,732 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/270 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Mosby](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/270) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Mosby A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/270?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/270?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/270) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/270?window=all) Price · $6.00 Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $5.34 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.67% · 5,732 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.74% ±10.12 931 openings 7 days · 85.94% ±4.46 4,946 openings 30 days · 85.67% ±4.16 5,732 openings since tracking started · 85.67% ±4.16 5,732 openings 80.0% 90.8% 101.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/270?window=24h) | 931 | 90.74% ±10.1 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/270?window=7d) | 4,946 | 85.94% ±4.46 | −1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/270) | 5,732 | 85.67% ±4.16 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/270?window=all) | 5,732 | 85.67% ±4.16 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,735 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,163 | $93.16 | 1.5% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,124 | $90.18 | 1.5% | 1 | 5.1 | 0.20× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 990 | $79.32 | 1.5% | 0 | 5.8 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 952 | $75.90 | 1.5% | 15 | 6.0 | 2.49× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 877 | $70.36 | 1.5% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 256 | $54.14 | 4.0% | 19 | 22.4 | 0.85× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 230 | $48.58 | 4.0% | 12 | 24.9 | 0.48× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 226 | $47.66 | 4.0% | 20 | 25.4 | 0.79× | | [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 213 | $45.06 | 4.0% | 25 | 26.9 | 0.93× | | [P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-factory-new) | 1 in 193 | $40.84 | 4.0% | 17 | 29.6 | 0.57× | | [USP-S \| Business Class (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-well-worn) | 1 in 149 | $31.53 | 4.0% | 46 | 38.4 | 1.20× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 148 | $31.24 | 4.0% | 27 | 38.8 | 0.70× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 106 | $22.30 | 4.0% | 56 | 54.3 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $17.08 | 4.0% | 61 | 70.9 | 0.86× | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $9.02 | 3.1% | 94 | 104.5 | 0.90× | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $9.00 | 3.1% | 93 | 104.8 | 0.89× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $8.44 | 3.1% | 107 | 111.7 | 0.96× | | [1st Lieutenant Farlow \| SWAT agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/1st-lieutenant-farlow-swat) | 1 in 48 | $7.93 | 3.1% | 82 | 118.9 | 0.69× | | [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $7.30 | 3.1% | 103 | 129.2 | 0.80× | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $7.19 | 3.1% | 120 | 131.2 | 0.91× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $6.05 | 3.1% | 137 | 155.9 | 0.88× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) | 78.8% | $2.39 | 35.3% | 4,571 | 4518.8 | 1.01× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/270`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=270) [AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.00 $7.19 1.20x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.00 $2.39 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [USP-S | Business Class (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-well-worn) [FrankStienskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/FrankStienskins.army) $6.00 $31.53 5.26x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) [adamnicho](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adamnicho) $6.00 $2.39 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) [Astro.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Astro.skins.army) $6.00 $2.39 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) [PAMELA\_goat](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PAMELA_goat) $6.00 $2.39 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) [SpizganyBanan](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SpizganyBanan) $6.00 $2.39 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [AWP | PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) [Don Malkon](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Don%20Malkon) $6.00 $7.30 1.22x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) [SpizganyBanan](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SpizganyBanan) $6.00 $2.39 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.00 $2.39 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $6.00 | 88.92% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $6.00 | 89.11% | 25 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 1.3% covert 0.6% classified 0.5% restricted 85.6% blue 1.2% industrial 5.9% pink 2.1% Legendary 2.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt