---
title: "Pain case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Pain ($9.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.87% from 32 items with odds, observed 85.39% over 4,538 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/271
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Pain](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/271)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Pain

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/271?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/271?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/271) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/271?window=all)

Price · $9.00

Advertised RTP · 88.87% · EV $8.00 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.39% · 4,538 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 76.27% ±14.78 505 openings

7 days · 85.43% ±5.40 3,787 openings

30 days · 85.39% ±4.93 4,538 openings

since tracking started · 85.39% ±4.93 4,538 openings

61.0% 76.3% 91.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/271?window=24h) | 505 | 76.27% ±14.8 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/271?window=7d) | 3,787 | 85.43% ±5.40 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/271) | 4,538 | 85.39% ±4.93 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/271?window=all) | 4,538 | 85.39% ±4.93 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,542 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 1,031 | $151 | 1.8% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 901 | $132 | 1.8% | 5 | 5.0 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 833 | $122 | 1.8% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.37× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 787 | $115 | 1.8% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.69× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) | 1 in 763 | $111 | 1.8% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 658 | $96.40 | 1.8% | 9 | 6.9 | 1.30× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 424 | $80.34 | 2.4% | 10 | 10.7 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 412 | $78.04 | 2.4% | 5 | 11.0 | 0.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 357 | $67.88 | 2.4% | 14 | 12.7 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 310 | $58.74 | 2.4% | 17 | 14.7 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 274 | $52.00 | 2.4% | 14 | 16.6 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 262 | $49.83 | 2.4% | 23 | 17.3 | 1.33× |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 228 | $43.42 | 2.4% | 21 | 19.9 | 1.06× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 211 | $40.07 | 2.4% | 24 | 21.5 | 1.11× |
| [MAC-10 \| Curse (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-well-worn) | 1 in 189 | $35.83 | 2.4% | 21 | 24.1 | 0.87× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 179 | $34.02 | 2.4% | 29 | 25.3 | 1.14× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 178 | $33.84 | 2.4% | 21 | 25.5 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $24.91 | 2.4% | 39 | 34.7 | 1.13× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $24.39 | 2.4% | 36 | 35.4 | 1.02× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 124 | $23.51 | 2.4% | 30 | 36.7 | 0.82× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $23.05 | 2.4% | 30 | 37.4 | 0.80× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $20.82 | 2.4% | 50 | 41.5 | 1.21× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 106 | $20.15 | 2.4% | 35 | 42.8 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 101 | $19.27 | 2.4% | 32 | 44.8 | 0.71× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $18.43 | 6.4% | 112 | 126.8 | 0.88× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $16.02 | 6.4% | 153 | 145.8 | 1.05× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $14.90 | 6.4% | 145 | 156.8 | 0.92× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $13.86 | 6.4% | 189 | 168.6 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $13.09 | 6.4% | 181 | 178.5 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $12.27 | 6.4% | 191 | 190.4 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-devourer-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $10.96 | 6.4% | 212 | 213.1 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 62.9% | $0.16 | 1.3% | 2,881 | 2856.1 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/271`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=271)

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $0.16 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Magna Carta (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-factory-new) Hidden $9.00 $14.90 1.66x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[AWP | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-battle-scarred) Hidden $9.00 $12.27 1.36x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $9.00 $0.16 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $0.16 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $0.16 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Magna Carta (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-factory-new) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $9.00 $14.90 1.66x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC

[AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) [mikhail garbachov](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mikhail%20garbachov) $9.00 $13.09 1.45x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) [Malpa skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Malpa%20skins.army) $9.00 $0.16 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $9.00 $0.16 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $9.00 | 88.87% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.4% restricted 0.6% mil spec 0.7% extraordinary 0.2% Ancient 0.3% classified 8.8% Mil Spec Grade 0.4% #8847ff 0.5% Classified 4.8% Legendary 10.5% pink 0.8% #4b69ff 3.5% #d32ee6 4.7% Uncommon 62.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.87 on average: an expected loss of $11.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt