---
title: "Popular case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Popular ($5.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.89% from 22 items with odds, observed 87.47% over 11.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/272
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Popular](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/272)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Popular

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/272?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/272?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/272) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/272?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 88.89% · EV $4.44 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.47% · 11.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.69% ±12.26 1,220 openings

7 days · 88.04% ±4.44 9,514 openings

30 days · 87.47% ±4.01 11.8K openings

since tracking started · 87.47% ±4.01 11.8K openings

78.0% 90.8% 103.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/272?window=24h) | 1,220 | 90.69% ±12.3 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/272?window=7d) | 9,514 | 88.04% ±4.44 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/272) | 11.8K | 87.47% ±4.01 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/272?window=all) | 11.8K | 87.47% ±4.01 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 769 | $135 | 3.9% | 15 | 15.4 | 0.97× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 529 | $93.13 | 4.0% | 20 | 22.4 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 415 | $73.06 | 4.0% | 23 | 28.5 | 0.81× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 355 | $62.39 | 4.0% | 29 | 33.4 | 0.87× |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-factory-new) | 1 in 337 | $59.20 | 4.0% | 24 | 35.2 | 0.68× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 244 | $47.28 | 4.4% | 30 | 48.5 | 0.62× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 228 | $44.20 | 4.4% | 55 | 52.0 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $44.04 | 4.4% | 62 | 52.2 | 1.19× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 162 | $31.36 | 4.4% | 67 | 73.3 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $23.75 | 4.4% | 114 | 96.7 | 1.18× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 112 | $21.70 | 4.4% | 96 | 105.8 | 0.91× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $21.52 | 4.4% | 117 | 106.7 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $19.45 | 4.4% | 110 | 118.0 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 99 | $19.28 | 4.4% | 111 | 119.1 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $16.84 | 4.4% | 148 | 136.4 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $7.99 | 5.3% | 337 | 348.2 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $7.19 | 5.3% | 354 | 386.9 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $6.00 | 5.3% | 464 | 463.8 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $5.15 | 5.3% | 524 | 540.3 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $5.14 | 5.3% | 537 | 541.3 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $5.09 | 5.3% | 512 | 546.7 | 0.94× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) | 67.3% | $0.32 | 4.8% | 8,091 | 7969.1 | 1.02× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/272`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=272)

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $0.32 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-mortis-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $7.19 1.44x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) [Maverick](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Maverick) $5.00 $0.32 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:27 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $0.32 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) [Szmugler](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Szmugler) $5.00 $0.32 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $0.32 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-minimal-wear) [SPENISON](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SPENISON) $5.00 $0.32 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:18 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) [kroalovyy skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kroalovyy%20skins.army) $5.00 $47.28 9.46x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[Galil AR | CAUTION! (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-field-tested) [Wujek CSGOSKINS #CASEHUG](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Wujek%20CSGOSKINS%20%23CASEHUG) $5.00 $44.04 8.81x 2026-11-11 17:16 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $5.15 1.03x 2026-11-11 17:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $5.00 | 88.89% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $5.00 | 89.12% | 22 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.0% gold 0.2% red 0.2% classified 4.5% restricted 2.1% pink 0.9% #d32ee6 2.9% #d32ce6 12.4% Legendary 3.9% #8847ff 4.6% #4b69ff 67.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.89 on average: an expected loss of $11.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt