--- title: "Gadget case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Gadget ($4.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 90.61% over 8,316 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/273 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Gadget](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/273) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Gadget A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/273?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/273?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/273) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/273?window=all) Price · $4.50 Advertised RTP · 88.91% · EV $4.00 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.61% · 8,316 openings, odds method Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.72% ±12.92 1,032 openings 7 days · 90.02% ±4.97 7,145 openings 30 days · 90.61% ±4.63 8,316 openings since tracking started · 90.61% ±4.63 8,316 openings 76.0% 89.8% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/273?window=24h) | 1,032 | 89.72% ±12.9 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/273?window=7d) | 7,145 | 90.02% ±4.97 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/273) | 8,316 | 90.61% ±4.63 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/273?window=all) | 8,316 | 90.61% ±4.63 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,325 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 709 | $127 | 4.5% | 8 | 11.7 | 0.68× | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 699 | $126 | 4.5% | 13 | 11.9 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 290 | $52.23 | 4.5% | 36 | 28.7 | 1.25× | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 281 | $50.50 | 4.5% | 32 | 29.6 | 1.08× | | [USP-S \| Caiman (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-well-worn) | 1 in 177 | $41.17 | 5.8% | 38 | 47.1 | 0.81× | | [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $33.24 | 5.8% | 41 | 58.4 | 0.70× | | [P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $17.08 | 5.8% | 120 | 113.6 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $14.73 | 5.8% | 140 | 131.7 | 1.06× | | [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $12.52 | 5.8% | 156 | 154.9 | 1.01× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $11.08 | 5.8% | 201 | 175.1 | 1.15× | | [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $10.73 | 5.8% | 152 | 180.7 | 0.84× | | [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $9.54 | 5.8% | 203 | 203.3 | 1.00× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $7.83 | 5.8% | 200 | 248.1 | 0.81× | | [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $6.16 | 5.8% | 296 | 315.4 | 0.94× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $5.84 | 5.8% | 326 | 332.6 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $5.23 | 5.8% | 331 | 371.4 | 0.89× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $4.98 | 5.8% | 387 | 390.0 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $4.52 | 5.8% | 414 | 429.7 | 0.96× | | [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 61.2% | $0.03 | 0.5% | 5,112 | 5091.1 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/273`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=273) [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) [→●σѕкαя●←⭕⃤](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%86%92%E2%97%8F%CF%83%D1%95%D0%BA%CE%B1%D1%8F%E2%97%8F%E2%86%90%E2%AD%95%E2%83%A4) $4.50 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) [Lindusek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Lindusek) $4.50 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:35 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) [ctk](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ctk) $4.50 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) [M1ko777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/M1ko777) $4.50 $12.52 2.78x 2026-11-11 17:32 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $4.50 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.50 $4.52 1.00x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) [O1szaszef skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/O1szaszef%20skins.army) $4.50 $12.52 2.78x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.50 $11.08 2.46x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.50 $4.52 1.00x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC [FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $4.50 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $4.50 | 88.91% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $4.50 | 88.83% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 6.1% covert 0.5% #eb4b4b 0.3% restricted 8.8% #d32ee6 1.4% mil spec 4.0% industrial 2.2% Mythical 2.4% Legendary 8.5% #8847ff 4.7% consumer 61.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.91 on average: an expected loss of $11.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt