---
title: "Twenty-one case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Twenty-one ($21.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 24 items with odds, observed 92.81% over 1,169 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/274
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Twenty-one](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/274)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Twenty-one

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/274?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/274?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/274) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/274?window=all)

Price · $21.00

Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $18.66 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.81% · 1,169 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 108.28% ±32.15 228 openings

7 days · 94.24% ±15.75 1,001 openings

30 days · 92.81% ±14.78 1,169 openings

since tracking started · 92.81% ±14.78 1,169 openings

75.5% 108.3% 141.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/274?window=24h) | 228 | 108.28% ±32.2 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/274?window=7d) | 1,001 | 94.24% ±15.7 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/274) | 1,169 | 92.81% ±14.8 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/274?window=all) | 1,169 | 92.81% ±14.8 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,173 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,852 | $1,330 | 3.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 901 | $651 | 3.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) | 1 in 758 | $548 | 3.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.29× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 334 | $242 | 3.9% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 317 | $229 | 3.9% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 190 | $153 | 4.3% | 9 | 6.2 | 1.46× |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $146 | 4.3% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 146 | $117 | 4.3% | 8 | 8.1 | 0.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $88.07 | 4.3% | 13 | 10.7 | 1.21× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $80.74 | 4.3% | 3 | 11.7 | 0.26× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $74.87 | 4.3% | 14 | 12.6 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $46.08 | 4.3% | 19 | 20.5 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $42.80 | 4.3% | 15 | 22.1 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $42.66 | 4.3% | 16 | 22.1 | 0.72× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $41.42 | 4.5% | 24 | 23.8 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $39.64 | 4.5% | 25 | 24.8 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47 | $39.59 | 4.5% | 18 | 24.9 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $38.86 | 4.5% | 33 | 25.3 | 1.30× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $35.53 | 4.5% | 29 | 27.7 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $32.10 | 4.5% | 41 | 30.7 | 1.34× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $30.42 | 4.5% | 29 | 32.4 | 0.90× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $25.07 | 4.5% | 54 | 39.2 | 1.38× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $23.27 | 4.5% | 43 | 42.3 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-well-worn) | 65.7% | $0.41 | 1.4% | 764 | 771.0 | 0.99× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/274`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $21.00 $1,330 63.33x 2026-11-10 17:57 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) Hidden $21.00 $548 26.09x 2026-11-09 17:37 UTC

[AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-factory-new) [hades](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/hades) $21.00 $548 26.09x 2026-11-05 16:02 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=274)

[Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-well-worn) [adamnicho](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adamnicho) $21.00 $0.41 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) [TfójMama](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Tf%C3%B3jMama) $21.00 $41.42 1.97x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC

[Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-well-worn) Hidden $21.00 $0.41 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-well-worn) Hidden $21.00 $0.41 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[P250 | Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) Hidden $21.00 $42.80 2.04x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-well-worn) [GUTEK POGROMCA PROSTYTUTEK](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/GUTEK%20POGROMCA%20PROSTYTUTEK) $21.00 $0.41 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-well-worn) Hidden $21.00 $0.41 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-well-worn) Hidden $21.00 $0.41 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-well-worn) [KICK/YT: Prz3mqu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KICK%2FYT%3A%20Prz3mqu) $21.00 $0.41 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[Tec-9 | Ice Cap (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-well-worn) [GUTEK POGROMCA PROSTYTUTEK](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/GUTEK%20POGROMCA%20PROSTYTUTEK) $21.00 $0.41 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $21.00 | 88.88% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $21.00 | 88.84% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 10.6% covert 4.4% red 0.3% restricted 2.7% #4b69ff 0.9% mil spec 69.6% #d32ce6 2.1% Ancient 2.4% Restricted 3.3% rare 3.6% best hit $1,330 (63.33x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt