--- title: "10% Speciality case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Speciality ($14.10) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.36% from 8 items with odds, observed 86.28% over 1,149 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/276 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [10% Speciality](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/276) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 10% Speciality A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/276?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/276?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/276) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/276?window=all) Price · $14.10 Advertised RTP · 84.36% · EV $11.89 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.28% · 1,149 openings, odds method Variance · 15.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 201 openings · below min 7 days · 88.01% ±25.46 915 openings 30 days · 86.28% ±22.82 1,149 openings since tracking started · 86.28% ±22.82 1,149 openings 38.5% 92.8% 147.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/276?window=24h) | 201 | 92.74% ±53.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/276?window=7d) | 915 | 88.01% ±25.5 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/276) | 1,149 | 86.28% ±22.8 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/276?window=all) | 1,149 | 86.28% ±22.8 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,149 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $414 | 34.8% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.96× | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $231 | 19.4% | 18 | 11.5 | 1.57× | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $205 | 17.2% | 13 | 11.5 | 1.13× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $199 | 16.8% | 5 | 11.5 | 0.44× | | [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $66.15 | 5.6% | 12 | 11.5 | 1.04× | | [P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $42.20 | 3.5% | 10 | 11.5 | 0.87× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $7.29 | 2.5% | 52 | 46.0 | 1.13× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 90.0% | $0.04 | 0.3% | 1,028 | 1034.1 | 0.99× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/276`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $17.40 $543 31.23x 2026-11-04 11:53 UTC [USP-S | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-factory-new) [KOLEJARZ 4 LIGA skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KOLEJARZ%204%20LIGA%20skins.army) $17.40 $543 31.23x 2026-11-03 12:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=276) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.10 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.10 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $14.10 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [SSG 08 | Death Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-field-tested) Hidden $14.10 $205 14.51x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.10 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $14.10 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.10 $231 16.36x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $14.10 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.10 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $14.10 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $14.10 | 84.36% | 8 | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $17.40 | 84.38% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 3.0% #d32ee6 1.0% restricted 1.0% #8847ff 5.0% consumer 90.0% best hit $543 (31.23x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.36 on average: an expected loss of $15.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt