--- title: "7.77% lucky case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "7.77% lucky ($20.20) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.22% from 16 items with odds, observed 104.27% over 853 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/278 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [7.77% lucky](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/278) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 7.77% lucky A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/278?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/278?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/278) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/278?window=all) Price · $20.20 Advertised RTP · 84.22% · EV $17.01 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.27% · 853 openings, odds method Variance · 11.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 39 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 129.61% ±46.57 201 openings 7 days · 108.20% ±24.83 714 openings 30 days · 104.27% ±22.89 853 openings since tracking started · 104.27% ±22.89 853 openings 80.5% 128.8% 177.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/278?window=24h) | 201 | 129.61% ±46.6 | +1.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/278?window=7d) | 714 | 108.20% ±24.8 | +1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/278) | 853 | 104.27% ±22.9 | +1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/278?window=all) | 853 | 104.27% ±22.9 | +1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 853 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $551 | 16.8% | 7 | 4.4 | 1.58× | | [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 193 | $351 | 10.7% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.13× | | [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $335 | 10.2% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.36× | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $306 | 9.3% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 193 | $261 | 7.9% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.36× | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $230 | 7.0% | 9 | 4.4 | 2.04× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 193 | $195 | 5.9% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.13× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 193 | $194 | 5.9% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $192 | 5.9% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 193 | $154 | 4.7% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $148 | 4.5% | 11 | 4.4 | 2.49× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 193 | $143 | 4.3% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 193 | $96.55 | 2.9% | 8 | 4.4 | 1.81× | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 193 | $77.63 | 2.4% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× | | [P250 \| Undertow (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-factory-new) | 1 in 193 | $42.80 | 1.3% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.36× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 92.2% | $0.04 | 0.2% | 772 | 786.7 | 0.98× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/278`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) [PatrickStar](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PatrickStar) $20.20 $551 27.30x 2026-11-11 00:20 UTC [Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $20.20 $551 27.30x 2026-11-10 22:07 UTC [Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $20.20 $551 27.30x 2026-11-10 22:01 UTC [Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) [Lechu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Lechu) $20.20 $551 27.30x 2026-11-10 21:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $20.20 $551 27.30x 2026-11-07 12:26 UTC [Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $20.20 $551 27.30x 2026-11-07 11:31 UTC [Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-field-tested) Hidden $20.20 $551 27.30x 2026-11-06 22:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=278) [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $20.20 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $20.20 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $20.20 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [USP-S | Target Acquired (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-field-tested) [GUTEK POGROMCA PROSTYTUTEK](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/GUTEK%20POGROMCA%20PROSTYTUTEK) $20.20 $230 11.38x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $20.20 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $20.20 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) [KICK/YT: Prz3mqu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KICK%2FYT%3A%20Prz3mqu) $20.20 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) [GUTEK POGROMCA PROSTYTUTEK](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/GUTEK%20POGROMCA%20PROSTYTUTEK) $20.20 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $20.20 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $20.20 $0.04 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $20.20 | 84.22% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $23.80 | 84.42% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 2.1% classified 3.1% covert 2.1% mil spec 0.5% consumer 92.2% best hit $551 (27.30x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.22 on average: an expected loss of $15.78 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt