--- title: "4.20% greeny case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "4.20% greeny ($2.40) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.25% from 7 items with odds, observed 79.70% over 18.3K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/279 rendered: 2026-11-12T01:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [4.20% greeny](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/279) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 4.20% greeny A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/279?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/279?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/279) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/279?window=all) Price · $2.40 Advertised RTP · 84.25% · EV $2.02 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.70% · 18.3K openings, odds method Variance · 141.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 75 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.31% ±50.13 2,155 openings 7 days · 79.65% ±19.14 14.4K openings 30 days · 79.70% ±16.45 18.3K openings since tracking started · 79.70% ±16.45 18.3K openings 35.5% 86.3% 137.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/279?window=24h) | 2,155 | 86.31% ±50.1 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/279?window=7d) | 14.4K | 79.65% ±19.1 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/279) | 18.3K | 79.70% ±16.5 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/279?window=all) | 18.3K | 79.70% ±16.5 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.4K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $8,416 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 694 | $111 | 7.9% | 33 | 26.4 | 1.25× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 233 | $79.41 | 16.9% | 79 | 79.0 | 1.00× | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $76.27 | 28.4% | 118 | 138.1 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 97 | $37.27 | 19.1% | 202 | 190.1 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $16.03 | 14.6% | 322 | 337.5 | 0.95× | | [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) | 95.8% | $0.19 | 9.0% | 17,609 | 17591.8 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/279`, 12 Nov, 00:34 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.20 $162 50.70x 2026-11-06 15:16 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.20 $162 50.70x 2026-11-05 19:26 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.20 $162 50.70x 2026-11-05 19:01 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) [dohu@banditskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/dohu%40banditskins.army) $3.20 $162 50.70x 2026-11-05 17:39 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.20 $162 50.70x 2026-11-05 14:50 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.20 $162 50.70x 2026-11-05 12:45 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.20 $162 50.70x 2026-11-05 02:24 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) [dohu@banditskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/dohu%40banditskins.army) $3.20 $162 50.70x 2026-11-04 19:51 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.20 $162 50.70x 2026-11-04 19:19 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.20 $162 50.70x 2026-11-04 17:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=279) [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) [LastHope](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/LastHope) $2.40 $0.19 0.08x 2026-11-12 01:21 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) [dr3wniak](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/dr3wniak) $2.40 $0.19 0.08x 2026-11-12 01:21 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) [LastHope](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/LastHope) $2.40 $0.19 0.08x 2026-11-12 01:21 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) [dr3wniak](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/dr3wniak) $2.40 $0.19 0.08x 2026-11-12 01:21 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) [LastHope](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/LastHope) $2.40 $0.19 0.08x 2026-11-12 01:21 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) [dr3wniak](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/dr3wniak) $2.40 $0.19 0.08x 2026-11-12 01:21 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) [LastHope](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/LastHope) $2.40 $0.19 0.08x 2026-11-12 01:21 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) [dr3wniak](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/dr3wniak) $2.40 $0.19 0.08x 2026-11-12 01:21 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) [LastHope](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/LastHope) $2.40 $0.19 0.08x 2026-11-12 01:21 UTC [G3SG1 | Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-factory-new) [dr3wniak](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/dr3wniak) $2.40 $0.19 0.08x 2026-11-12 01:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $2.40 | 84.25% | 7 | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.20 | 84.20% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% classified 1.2% #4b69ff 1.0% blue 1.8% industrial 95.8% best hit $162 (50.70x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.25 on average: an expected loss of $15.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt