---
title: "Covert case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Covert ($12.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.86% from 38 items with odds, observed 92.57% over 5,255 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/28
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Covert](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/28)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Covert

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/28?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/28?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/28) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/28?window=all)

Price · $12.00

Advertised RTP · 88.86% · EV $10.66 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.57% · 5,255 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 100.98% ±21.08 628 openings

7 days · 94.60% ±8.02 4,337 openings

30 days · 92.57% ±7.29 5,255 openings

since tracking started · 92.57% ±7.29 5,255 openings

79.0% 100.8% 122.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/28?window=24h) | 628 | 100.98% ±21.1 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/28?window=7d) | 4,337 | 94.60% ±8.02 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/28) | 5,255 | 92.57% ±7.29 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/28?window=all) | 5,255 | 92.57% ±7.29 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,268 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,753 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,579 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $887 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $338 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $324 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-factory-new) | 1 in 11,111 | $315 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $231 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $215 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $215 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 685 | $159 | 2.2% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 662 | $155 | 2.2% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 662 | $155 | 2.2% | 6 | 8.0 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 658 | $153 | 2.2% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 654 | $152 | 2.2% | 14 | 8.1 | 1.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 649 | $152 | 2.2% | 11 | 8.1 | 1.36× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 637 | $148 | 2.2% | 11 | 8.3 | 1.33× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 629 | $147 | 2.2% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 606 | $141 | 2.2% | 15 | 8.7 | 1.73× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 641 | $136 | 2.0% | 11 | 8.2 | 1.34× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 641 | $135 | 2.0% | 9 | 8.2 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 613 | $130 | 2.0% | 11 | 8.6 | 1.28× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 613 | $130 | 2.0% | 14 | 8.6 | 1.63× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 488 | $103 | 2.0% | 4 | 10.8 | 0.37× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 467 | $98.82 | 2.0% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 452 | $95.62 | 2.0% | 12 | 11.6 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 405 | $85.58 | 2.0% | 20 | 13.0 | 1.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 372 | $78.38 | 2.0% | 13 | 14.2 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $42.77 | 7.4% | 96 | 97.6 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $40.85 | 7.4% | 104 | 102.1 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $38.59 | 7.4% | 104 | 108.1 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $37.51 | 7.4% | 129 | 111.2 | 1.16× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $36.40 | 7.4% | 111 | 114.6 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| XANTARES (Gold) \| Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xantares-gold-austin-2025) | 1 in 22 | $8.86 | 3.8% | 243 | 237.9 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| jottAAA (Gold) \| Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-jottaaa-gold-austin-2025) | 10.2% | $3.93 | 3.8% | 510 | 536.2 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Snax (Gold) \| Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snax-gold-austin-2025) | 11.4% | $3.52 | 3.8% | 577 | 598.7 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| hades (Gold) \| Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-gold-austin-2025) | 13.8% | $2.90 | 3.8% | 742 | 726.6 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| malbsMd (Gold) \| Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-malbsmd-gold-austin-2025) | 20.4% | $1.96 | 3.8% | 1,092 | 1075.1 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| MAJ3R (Gold) \| Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-maj3r-gold-austin-2025) | 26.4% | $1.59 | 3.9% | 1,367 | 1388.6 | 0.98× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/28`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=28)

[Sticker | hades (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-gold-austin-2025) [schackss](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/schackss) $12.00 $2.90 0.24x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC

[Sticker | hades (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-gold-austin-2025) Hidden $12.00 $2.90 0.24x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC

[Sticker | Snax (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snax-gold-austin-2025) [UdaPatoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/UdaPatoo) $12.00 $3.52 0.29x 2026-11-11 17:06 UTC

[Sticker | hades (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hades-gold-austin-2025) [Slowik (COACH) skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Slowik%20%28COACH%29%20skins.army) $12.00 $2.90 0.24x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[Sticker | malbsMd (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-malbsmd-gold-austin-2025) [UdaPatoo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/UdaPatoo) $12.00 $1.96 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[Sticker | MAJ3R (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-maj3r-gold-austin-2025) [Cypstain](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Cypstain) $12.00 $1.59 0.13x 2026-11-11 17:05 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) Hidden $12.00 $85.58 7.13x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

[Sticker | malbsMd (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-malbsmd-gold-austin-2025) Hidden $12.00 $1.96 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

[Sticker | XANTARES (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xantares-gold-austin-2025) [Get-\_Sinibu7 CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Get-_Sinibu7%20CSGOSKINS) $12.00 $8.86 0.74x 2026-11-11 16:55 UTC

[Sticker | malbsMd (Gold) | Austin 2025 sticker · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-malbsmd-gold-austin-2025) Hidden $12.00 $1.96 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $12.00 | 88.86% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.9% #eb4b4b 86.6% red 2.2% Ancient 4.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.86 on average: an expected loss of $11.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt