--- title: "Test ur luck case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Test ur luck ($0.45) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 77.77% from 12 items with odds, observed 88.07% over 92K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/284 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Test ur luck](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/284) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Test ur luck A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/284?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/284?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/284) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/284?window=all) Price · $0.45 Advertised RTP · 77.77% · EV $0.35 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.07% · 92K openings, odds method Variance · 399.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 1,562 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.91% ±35.85 11.9K openings 7 days · 93.29% ±15.43 76.1K openings 30 days · 88.07% ±14.09 92K openings since tracking started · 88.07% ±14.09 92K openings 41.5% 78.0% 114.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/284?window=24h) | 11.9K | 77.91% ±35.8 | +0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/284?window=7d) | 76.1K | 93.29% ±15.4 | +1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/284) | 92K | 88.07% ±14.1 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/284?window=all) | 92K | 88.07% ±14.1 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 92.2K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $531 | 24.3% | 14 | 14.8 | 0.95× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $228 | 10.4% | 22 | 14.8 | 1.49× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $203 | 9.3% | 17 | 14.8 | 1.15× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $175 | 8.0% | 18 | 14.8 | 1.22× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $164 | 7.5% | 12 | 14.8 | 0.81× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $159 | 7.3% | 19 | 14.8 | 1.29× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,250 | $124 | 5.7% | 11 | 14.8 | 0.75× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $110 | 5.0% | 16 | 14.8 | 1.08× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $107 | 4.9% | 13 | 14.8 | 0.88× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $70.83 | 3.2% | 11 | 14.8 | 0.75× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,250 | $65.79 | 3.0% | 17 | 14.8 | 1.15× | | [AUG \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) | 99.8% | $0.04 | 11.4% | 92,067 | 92074.7 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/284`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.45 $604 1,343x 2026-11-09 15:12 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.45 $604 1,343x 2026-11-09 07:48 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.45 $604 1,343x 2026-11-07 22:06 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.45 $604 1,343x 2026-11-07 20:50 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Mikro Cypekhov - Dagestan](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mikro%20Cypekhov%20-%20Dagestan) $0.45 $604 1,343x 2026-11-07 17:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.45 $604 1,343x 2026-11-06 17:47 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.45 $604 1,343x 2026-11-06 14:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Kubix67skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kubix67skins.army) $0.45 $604 1,343x 2026-11-05 20:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.45 $604 1,343x 2026-11-05 20:12 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [1p1ot3r1 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/1p1ot3r1%20skins.army) $0.45 $604 1,343x 2026-11-05 19:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=284) [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) [Mqxiuu skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mqxiuu%20skins.army) $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) [🖕 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9F%96%95%20skins.army) $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [AUG | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-field-tested) [RUTO SECURITY QN](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RUTO%20SECURITY%20QN) $0.45 $0.04 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $0.45 | 77.77% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $0.45 | 84.05% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% Immortal 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% consumer 99.8% best hit $604 (1,343x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 77.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $77.77 on average: an expected loss of $22.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt