--- title: "10% Dragonfire case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% Dragonfire ($29.90) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.26% from 10 items with odds, observed 85.70% over 753 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/30 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [10% Dragonfire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/30) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 10% Dragonfire A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/30?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/30?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/30) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/30?window=all) Price · $29.90 Advertised RTP · 84.26% · EV $25.19 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.70% · 753 openings, odds method Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92 openings · below min 7 days · 77.67% ±20.39 584 openings 30 days · 85.70% ±18.06 753 openings since tracking started · 85.70% ±18.06 753 openings -0.5% 52.0% 104.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/30?window=24h) | 92 | 50.84% ±51.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/30?window=7d) | 584 | 77.67% ±20.4 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/30) | 753 | 85.70% ±18.1 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/30?window=all) | 753 | 85.70% ±18.1 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 753 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $345 | 16.5% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $255 | 18.2% | 15 | 13.6 | 1.11× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $233 | 20.4% | 11 | 16.6 | 0.66× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $228 | 25.4% | 20 | 21.1 | 0.95× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $225 | 17.8% | 19 | 15.1 | 1.26× | | [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $4.29 | 0.3% | 12 | 12.8 | 0.94× | | [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $1.07 | 0.0% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.16× | | [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 29.0% | $0.53 | 0.6% | 226 | 218.4 | 1.03× | | [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-well-worn) | 29.0% | $0.36 | 0.4% | 225 | 218.4 | 1.03× | | [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-battle-scarred) | 29.5% | $0.35 | 0.4% | 208 | 222.1 | 0.94× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/30`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=30) [SSG 08 | Abyss (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-well-worn) Hidden $29.90 $0.36 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [SSG 08 | Abyss (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-well-worn) [kim.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kim.) $29.90 $0.36 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [SSG 08 | Abyss (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-battle-scarred) Hidden $29.90 $0.35 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-well-worn) [kim.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kim.) $29.90 $225 7.52x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [SSG 08 | Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) Hidden $29.90 $0.53 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [SSG 08 | Abyss (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-well-worn) [kim.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kim.) $29.90 $0.36 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [SSG 08 | Abyss (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-battle-scarred) Hidden $29.90 $0.35 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [SSG 08 | Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) Hidden $29.90 $0.53 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [SSG 08 | Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) Hidden $29.90 $0.53 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [SSG 08 | Abyss (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-battle-scarred) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $29.90 $0.35 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 11:42 UTC | $29.90 | 84.26% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $38.90 | 84.35% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% mil spec 31.5% #4b69ff 58.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.26 on average: an expected loss of $15.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt