---
title: "Esteban case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Esteban ($2.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.69% from 32 items with odds, observed 87.69% over 25K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/309
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Esteban](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/309)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Esteban

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/309?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/309?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/309) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/309?window=all)

Price · $2.00

Advertised RTP · 88.69% · EV $1.77 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.69% · 25K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.11% ±6.56 3,427 openings

7 days · 86.97% ±2.77 20K openings

30 days · 87.69% ±2.53 25K openings

since tracking started · 87.69% ±2.53 25K openings

83.5% 91.5% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/309?window=24h) | 3,427 | 92.11% ±6.56 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/309?window=7d) | 20K | 86.97% ±2.77 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/309) | 25K | 87.69% ±2.53 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/309?window=all) | 25K | 87.69% ±2.53 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 2,703 | $89.36 | 1.9% | 9 | 9.3 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 2,381 | $79.83 | 1.9% | 11 | 10.6 | 1.04× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,299 | $43.30 | 1.9% | 22 | 19.4 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) | 1 in 926 | $30.97 | 1.9% | 23 | 27.2 | 0.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 877 | $29.14 | 1.9% | 30 | 28.7 | 1.05× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 820 | $27.43 | 1.9% | 24 | 30.7 | 0.78× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 763 | $25.47 | 1.9% | 22 | 33.0 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 645 | $21.48 | 1.9% | 27 | 39.0 | 0.69× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) | 1 in 617 | $20.52 | 1.9% | 36 | 40.8 | 0.88× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $9.22 | 4.6% | 205 | 224.8 | 0.91× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $8.92 | 4.6% | 183 | 232.1 | 0.79× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-well-worn) | 1 in 93 | $7.67 | 4.6% | 253 | 270.2 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 92 | $7.56 | 4.6% | 237 | 273.9 | 0.87× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $7.45 | 4.6% | 234 | 278.0 | 0.84× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $6.50 | 4.6% | 279 | 318.8 | 0.88× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-battle-scarred) | 1 in 75 | $6.16 | 4.6% | 330 | 336.4 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $4.20 | 4.5% | 460 | 479.6 | 0.96× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $4.09 | 4.5% | 404 | 492.5 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-nevermore-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $3.56 | 4.5% | 413 | 565.7 | 0.73× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Electrum (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-electrum-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $3.32 | 4.5% | 428 | 606.8 | 0.71× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $2.20 | 4.5% | 1,028 | 915.5 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.01 | 4.5% | 1,168 | 1002.1 | 1.17× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $1.77 | 1.6% | 763 | 404.1 | 1.89× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $1.50 | 1.6% | 452 | 476.6 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $0.89 | 1.6% | 736 | 803.4 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.79 | 1.6% | 806 | 905.1 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.76 | 1.6% | 948 | 940.9 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.61 | 3.1% | 2,200 | 2278.4 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.50 | 3.1% | 2,596 | 2779.7 | 0.93× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) | 12.8% | $0.43 | 3.1% | 3,451 | 3232.1 | 1.07× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) | 14.2% | $0.39 | 3.1% | 3,653 | 3563.7 | 1.03× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-well-worn) | 14.1% | $0.39 | 3.1% | 3,747 | 3558.9 | 1.05× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/309`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) [kubsonix303](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kubsonix303) $2.00 $134 67.02x 2026-11-02 23:02 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=309)

[R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $2.00 $0.43 0.22x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) [xdlol](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/xdlol) $2.00 $0.50 0.25x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC

[P90 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-well-worn) [kroalovyy skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kroalovyy%20skins.army) $2.00 $0.39 0.20x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) [sergio minetty](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sergio%20minetty) $2.00 $0.43 0.22x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-well-worn) Hidden $2.00 $0.89 0.45x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) [Piorunas](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Piorunas) $2.00 $0.39 0.20x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) [Slowik (COACH) skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Slowik%20%28COACH%29%20skins.army) $2.00 $0.39 0.20x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $2.00 $6.50 3.25x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

[P90 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-well-worn) [Mateuszyście](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mateuszy%C5%9Bcie) $2.00 $0.39 0.20x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) [Slowik (COACH) skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Slowik%20%28COACH%29%20skins.army) $2.00 $0.39 0.20x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $2.00 | 88.69% | 32 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.00 | 88.81% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 8.2% covert 0.1% Restricted 0.1% restricted 2.4% pink 1.2% #d32ee6 3.3% violet 1.1% Uncommon 1.9% uncommon 2.4% Rare 4.0% #8847ff 1.6% Legendary 1.9% milspec 6.9% mil spec 41.6% #4b69ff 23.2% best hit $134 (67.02x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.69 on average: an expected loss of $11.31 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt