--- title: "10% The Emperor case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "10% The Emperor ($7.90) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 84.72% from 10 items with odds, observed 91.25% over 2,669 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/31 rendered: 2026-11-11T18:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [10% The Emperor](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/31) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 10% The Emperor A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/31?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/31?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/31) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/31?window=all) Price · $7.90 Advertised RTP · 84.72% · EV $6.69 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.25% · 2,669 openings, odds method Variance · 6.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 97.62% ±20.83 535 openings 7 days · 89.87% ±9.89 2,386 openings 30 days · 91.25% ±9.43 2,669 openings since tracking started · 91.25% ±9.43 2,669 openings 76.0% 97.5% 119.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/31?window=24h) | 535 | 97.62% ±20.8 | +1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/31?window=7d) | 2,386 | 89.87% ±9.89 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/31) | 2,669 | 91.25% ±9.43 | +1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/31?window=all) | 2,669 | 91.25% ±9.43 | +1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,669 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $204 | 6.1% | 3 | 5.3 | 0.56× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $71.70 | 2.7% | 10 | 6.7 | 1.50× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $61.74 | 18.4% | 53 | 53.4 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $60.09 | 13.5% | 41 | 40.0 | 1.02× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $56.73 | 51.3% | 191 | 161.5 | 1.18× | | [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.95 | 2.2% | 82 | 80.1 | 1.02× | | [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.44 | 1.7% | 194 | 213.5 | 0.91× | | [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 19.0% | $0.53 | 1.5% | 525 | 507.1 | 1.04× | | [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 30.0% | $0.32 | 1.4% | 768 | 800.7 | 0.96× | | [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) | 30.0% | $0.26 | 1.2% | 802 | 800.7 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/31`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=31) [M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.90 $56.73 7.18x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) Hidden $7.90 $0.32 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.90 $0.26 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) [Lechu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Lechu) $7.90 $56.73 7.18x 2026-11-11 18:37 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) Hidden $7.90 $0.32 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) [spoconajula skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/spoconajula%20skins.army) $7.90 $0.26 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.90 $0.26 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) [Psemek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Psemek) $7.90 $0.32 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) Hidden $7.90 $0.32 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC [M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-minimal-wear) [Psemek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Psemek) $7.90 $1.44 0.18x 2026-11-11 18:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5 Nov, 11:42 UTC | $7.90 | 84.72% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $9.40 | 84.46% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.8% red 0.3% mil spec 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.72 on average: an expected loss of $15.28 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt