---
title: "M4A4 case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M4A4 ($5.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 39 items with odds, observed 83.18% over 12.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/32
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [M4A4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/32)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · M4A4

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/32?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/32?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/32) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/32?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $4.45 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.18% · 12.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 19.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.76% ±20.61 1,761 openings

7 days · 83.45% ±8.38 10.7K openings

30 days · 83.18% ±7.62 12.9K openings

since tracking started · 83.18% ±7.62 12.9K openings

65.5% 86.8% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/32?window=24h) | 1,761 | 86.76% ±20.6 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/32?window=7d) | 10.7K | 83.45% ±8.38 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/32) | 12.9K | 83.18% ±7.62 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/32?window=all) | 12.9K | 83.18% ±7.62 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 100,000 | $5,432 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,253 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $613 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Daybreak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $600 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $444 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $311 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.41× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $228 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $193 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $123 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $93.15 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.72× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $90.62 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,263 | $90.18 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $86.66 | 0.4% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.03× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 5,263 | $86.38 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,762 | $79.52 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 3,704 | $62.34 | 0.4% | 5 | 3.5 | 1.43× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 3,125 | $52.33 | 0.4% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.69× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,030 | $50.81 | 0.4% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.47× |
| [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $44.67 | 6.9% | 92 | 89.3 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 122 | $37.46 | 6.9% | 100 | 106.3 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $35.31 | 6.9% | 56 | 112.8 | 0.50× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $32.01 | 6.9% | 112 | 124.5 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $18.47 | 6.9% | 185 | 215.8 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $14.31 | 6.9% | 257 | 278.4 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $14.31 | 6.9% | 258 | 278.4 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $13.79 | 6.9% | 271 | 289.0 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $12.41 | 6.9% | 299 | 321.1 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dark-blossom-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $10.73 | 6.9% | 320 | 371.3 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $8.14 | 3.4% | 233 | 241.5 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-faded-zebra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $7.72 | 3.4% | 258 | 254.7 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $7.60 | 3.4% | 250 | 258.7 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $4.77 | 3.4% | 330 | 412.3 | 0.80× |
| [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $4.14 | 3.4% | 409 | 474.9 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $3.28 | 0.7% | 109 | 115.7 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $3.17 | 0.7% | 125 | 119.7 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.61 | 0.7% | 640 | 622.1 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.52 | 0.7% | 781 | 729.8 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 21.0% | $0.14 | 0.7% | 2,521 | 2710.6 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) | 36.9% | $0.08 | 0.7% | 5,297 | 4775.0 | 1.11× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/32`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Daybreak (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-daybreak-battle-scarred) [PiKe🐟](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PiKe%F0%9F%90%9F) $5.00 $613 122.5x 2026-11-10 13:27 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) [MALLOY](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MALLOY) $5.00 $311 62.26x 2026-11-10 21:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $311 62.26x 2026-11-06 21:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=32)

[M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) [Dudu Bear skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Dudu%20Bear%20skins.army) $5.00 $0.08 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) [Rychuichujskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Rychuichujskins.army) $5.00 $0.08 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [HARIBO](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/HARIBO) $5.00 $0.14 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) [TOTEMOWY](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/TOTEMOWY) $5.00 $14.31 2.86x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.08 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.08 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-field-tested) [Astercio](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Astercio) $5.00 $8.14 1.63x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.00 $13.79 2.76x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $32.01 6.40x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) [TOTEMOWY](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/TOTEMOWY) $5.00 $0.08 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $5.00 | 88.92% | 39 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $5.00 | 88.92% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% classified 8.6% restricted 1.6% covert 1.1% mil spec 10.2% red 0.0% Rare 5.7% violet 1.7% Uncommon 60.3% industrial 7.9% milspec 2.0% Mythical 0.9% best hit $613 (122.5x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt