---
title: "MP9 case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MP9 ($3.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.98% from 48 items with odds, observed 85.99% over 12.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/320
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [MP9](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/320)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · MP9

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/320?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/320?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/320) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/320?window=all)

Price · $3.00

Advertised RTP · 88.98% · EV $2.67 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.99% · 12.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 26.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.87% ±26.20 1,476 openings

7 days · 86.77% ±9.91 9,903 openings

30 days · 85.99% ±8.80 12.2K openings

since tracking started · 85.99% ±8.80 12.2K openings

60.0% 86.8% 113.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/320?window=24h) | 1,476 | 86.87% ±26.2 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/320?window=7d) | 9,903 | 86.77% ±9.91 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/320) | 12.2K | 85.99% ±8.80 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/320?window=all) | 12.2K | 85.99% ±8.80 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $2,251 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,940 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $357 | 1.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.63× |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,143 | $262 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $151 | 1.4% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Dark Age (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $147 | 1.4% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $127 | 1.4% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.84× |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-well-worn) | 1 in 3,030 | $112 | 1.4% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Dark Age (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $90.38 | 1.4% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.19× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $74.12 | 1.4% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.81× |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 1,818 | $67.65 | 1.4% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 1,220 | $45.40 | 1.4% | 15 | 10.1 | 1.49× |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 478 | $27.62 | 2.2% | 30 | 25.7 | 1.17× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 341 | $19.78 | 2.2% | 33 | 36.0 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 275 | $15.89 | 2.2% | 35 | 44.7 | 0.78× |
| [MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 258 | $14.94 | 2.2% | 40 | 47.5 | 0.84× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 1 in 254 | $14.74 | 2.2% | 54 | 48.3 | 1.12× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 243 | $14.09 | 2.2% | 49 | 50.5 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 242 | $14.01 | 2.2% | 43 | 50.7 | 0.85× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 222 | $12.85 | 2.2% | 52 | 55.3 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 1 in 172 | $9.92 | 2.2% | 84 | 71.6 | 1.17× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 170 | $9.82 | 2.2% | 73 | 72.4 | 1.01× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 157 | $9.08 | 2.2% | 72 | 78.3 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $7.51 | 2.2% | 94 | 94.6 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-rose-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 117 | $6.76 | 2.2% | 112 | 105.2 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Music Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-factory-new) | 1 in 109 | $6.29 | 2.2% | 105 | 113.0 | 0.93× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $5.46 | 4.4% | 253 | 262.5 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $5.27 | 4.4% | 230 | 272.0 | 0.85× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $5.21 | 4.4% | 276 | 275.1 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $4.42 | 4.4% | 305 | 324.3 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $3.93 | 4.4% | 393 | 364.7 | 1.08× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $3.70 | 4.4% | 358 | 387.3 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $3.69 | 4.4% | 384 | 388.5 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $3.32 | 4.4% | 454 | 431.7 | 1.05× |
| [MP9 \| Music Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $3.24 | 4.4% | 424 | 442.4 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.20 | 1.3% | 332 | 358.4 | 0.93× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $1.16 | 1.3% | 375 | 370.6 | 1.01× |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.02 | 1.3% | 357 | 421.5 | 0.85× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.00 | 1.3% | 454 | 430.0 | 1.06× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.75 | 1.3% | 517 | 573.3 | 0.90× |
| [MP9 \| Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.68 | 1.3% | 550 | 632.3 | 0.87× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.58 | 0.8% | 420 | 438.8 | 0.96× |
| [MP9 \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.43 | 0.8% | 643 | 591.8 | 1.09× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.41 | 0.8% | 618 | 620.6 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.37 | 0.8% | 747 | 687.7 | 1.09× |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.30 | 0.8% | 872 | 848.3 | 1.03× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.24 | 0.8% | 1,136 | 1060.3 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.23 | 0.8% | 1,268 | 1163.9 | 1.09× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/320`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[MP9 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-minimal-wear) [Pinokio67 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Pinokio67%20skins.army) $3.00 $357 119.1x 2026-11-06 19:35 UTC

[MP9 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-minimal-wear) [YVNGXRIVEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/YVNGXRIVEN) $3.00 $336 112.1x 2026-11-04 22:15 UTC

[MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) [!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) $3.00 $168 55.96x 2026-11-03 17:38 UTC

[MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) Hidden $3.00 $162 53.87x 2026-11-03 21:30 UTC

[MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) Hidden $3.00 $151 50.42x 2026-11-10 22:23 UTC

[MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) Hidden $3.00 $151 50.42x 2026-11-08 19:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=320)

[MP9 | Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.00 $1.00 0.33x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) [KOLAREK26](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KOLAREK26) $3.00 $14.01 4.67x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[MP9 | Bioleak (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-field-tested) [MISIU\_BIMツ skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MISIU_BIM%E3%83%84%20skins.army) $3.00 $0.37 0.12x 2026-11-11 17:24 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $4.42 1.47x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) [BaBuLa](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/BaBuLa) $3.00 $4.42 1.47x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC

[MP9 | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-factory-new) [jebac alana skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/jebac%20alana%20skins.army) $3.00 $1.02 0.34x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC

[MP9 | Goo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-battle-scarred) [Bombel skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bombel%20skins.army) $3.00 $1.16 0.39x 2026-11-11 17:02 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $3.00 $5.27 1.76x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

[MP9 | Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-minimal-wear) [CRISTIANO RONALDO](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/CRISTIANO%20RONALDO) $3.00 $1.00 0.33x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

[MP9 | Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-minimal-wear) [1Komik1](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/1Komik1) $3.00 $1.00 0.33x 2026-11-11 17:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 13:17 UTC | $3.00 | 88.98% | 48 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.00 | 88.91% | 48 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 8.2% restricted 13.8% mil spec 44.4% #4b69ff 3.7% red 0.1% Ancient 0.1% #8847ff 2.4% violet 0.4% #d32ee6 0.9% pink 3.9% Rare 7.1% milspec 15.1% best hit $357 (119.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.98 on average: an expected loss of $11.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt