---
title: "MAC-10 case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MAC-10 ($1.40) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.90% from 52 items with odds, observed 88.21% over 140K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/321
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [MAC-10](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/321)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · MAC-10

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/321?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/321?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/321) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/321?window=all)

Price · $1.40

Advertised RTP · 88.90% · EV $1.24 from 52 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.21% · 140K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.72% ±3.39 19.4K openings

7 days · 87.99% ±1.08 117K openings

30 days · 88.21% ±0.97 140K openings

since tracking started · 88.21% ±0.97 140K openings

84.5% 88.8% 93.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/321?window=24h) | 19.4K | 88.72% ±3.39 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/321?window=7d) | 117K | 87.99% ±1.08 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/321) | 140K | 88.21% ±0.97 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/321?window=all) | 140K | 88.21% ±0.97 | −1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 52 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 140K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25,000 | $206 | 0.7% | 1 | 5.6 | 0.18× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $134 | 0.6% | 0 | 8.4 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $99.50 | 0.6% | 2 | 11.2 | 0.18× |
| [MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $99.09 | 0.6% | 5 | 11.2 | 0.45× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $64.20 | 0.6% | 7 | 16.8 | 0.42× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $61.40 | 0.6% | 5 | 18.2 | 0.27× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $60.19 | 0.6% | 8 | 18.2 | 0.44× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $51.16 | 0.6% | 11 | 21.0 | 0.52× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $47.09 | 0.6% | 14 | 23.8 | 0.59× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,556 | $44.58 | 0.6% | 12 | 25.2 | 0.48× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $38.94 | 0.6% | 13 | 28.0 | 0.46× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,762 | $38.46 | 0.6% | 14 | 29.4 | 0.48× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 4,167 | $32.91 | 0.6% | 13 | 33.6 | 0.39× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $26.50 | 0.6% | 13 | 42.1 | 0.31× |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $26.37 | 0.6% | 19 | 42.1 | 0.45× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $23.01 | 0.6% | 13 | 47.7 | 0.27× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $19.68 | 0.6% | 22 | 56.1 | 0.39× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,439 | $19.09 | 0.6% | 375 | 57.5 | 6.52× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-well-worn) | 1 in 2,222 | $17.45 | 0.6% | 26 | 63.1 | 0.41× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 244 | $11.70 | 3.9% | 134 | 574.8 | 0.23× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $8.75 | 3.9% | 647 | 769.6 | 0.84× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 138 | $6.60 | 3.9% | 675 | 1019.2 | 0.66× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $6.47 | 3.9% | 942 | 1040.2 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $6.33 | 3.9% | 845 | 1062.6 | 0.80× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) | 1 in 128 | $6.12 | 3.9% | 1,017 | 1099.1 | 0.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 126 | $6.05 | 3.9% | 930 | 1111.7 | 0.84× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 119 | $5.70 | 3.9% | 1,102 | 1180.4 | 0.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $3.48 | 3.9% | 3,433 | 1933.2 | 1.78× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $2.98 | 3.9% | 1,483 | 2258.4 | 0.66× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $2.90 | 6.0% | 2,250 | 3601.4 | 0.62× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $2.29 | 6.0% | 2,818 | 4560.3 | 0.62× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.13 | 6.0% | 4,624 | 4903.7 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $1.84 | 6.0% | 4,429 | 5676.2 | 0.78× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $1.56 | 6.0% | 6,332 | 6695.3 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-last-dive-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.40 | 6.0% | 7,258 | 7459.4 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 164 | $1.36 | 0.7% | 5,335 | 855.1 | 6.24× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.83 | 0.7% | 1,239 | 1401.9 | 0.88× |
| [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $0.79 | 0.7% | 1,290 | 1473.4 | 0.88× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $0.66 | 0.7% | 1,573 | 1763.6 | 0.89× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $0.63 | 0.7% | 1,211 | 1846.3 | 0.66× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $0.52 | 0.7% | 2,300 | 2237.4 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $0.50 | 0.7% | 2,215 | 2327.1 | 0.95× |
| [MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-classic-crate-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $0.45 | 0.7% | 2,599 | 2585.0 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $0.43 | 0.7% | 5,216 | 2705.6 | 1.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $0.40 | 0.7% | 5,138 | 2908.9 | 1.77× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.35 | 1.0% | 3,103 | 4807.0 | 0.65× |
| [MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-whitefish-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.32 | 1.0% | 5,724 | 5257.0 | 1.09× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.29 | 1.0% | 7,317 | 5800.9 | 1.26× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.22 | 1.0% | 3,914 | 7647.2 | 0.51× |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.15 | 1.0% | 12,152 | 11215.0 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) | 10.9% | $0.11 | 1.0% | 18,486 | 15293.0 | 1.21× |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) | 17.5% | $0.07 | 1.0% | 21,883 | 24558.0 | 0.89× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/321`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.40 $206 146.8x 2026-11-09 22:16 UTC

[MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-factory-new) [vezi8454skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/vezi8454skins.army) $1.40 $119 85.33x 2026-11-03 10:18 UTC

[MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) Hidden $1.40 $99.50 71.07x 2026-11-10 20:01 UTC

[MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) [Michalek skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Michalek%20skins.army) $1.40 $99.50 71.07x 2026-11-09 21:26 UTC

[MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-factory-new) [pietruh77 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pietruh77%20skins.army) $1.40 $99.09 70.78x 2026-11-10 22:50 UTC

[MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-factory-new) Hidden $1.40 $99.09 70.78x 2026-11-10 20:29 UTC

[MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-factory-new) [Młody Botman ♿](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/M%C5%82ody%20Botman%20%E2%99%BF) $1.40 $99.09 70.78x 2026-11-10 19:28 UTC

[MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-factory-new) Hidden $1.40 $99.09 70.78x 2026-11-10 14:45 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) [Księciuniu.Skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Ksi%C4%99ciuniu.Skins.army) $1.40 $88.48 63.20x 2026-11-09 09:30 UTC

[MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) [kacper.czerwionkaaskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kacper.czerwionkaaskins.army) $1.40 $88.48 63.20x 2026-11-08 12:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=321)

[MAC-10 | Heat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-factory-new) Hidden $1.40 $11.70 8.36x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.40 $0.15 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) [Cixhy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Cixhy) $1.40 $0.35 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) Hidden $1.40 $0.11 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[MAC-10 | Allure (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.40 $0.40 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) [cicho cicho „skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cicho%20cicho%20%E2%80%9Eskins.army%E2%80%9D) $1.40 $0.66 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC

[MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-field-tested) [HARIBO](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/HARIBO) $1.40 $0.11 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-field-tested) [TOTEMOWY](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/TOTEMOWY) $1.40 $2.90 2.07x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[MAC-10 | Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) [TwujStaryROZPRUWACZ skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/TwujStaryROZPRUWACZ%20skins.army) $1.40 $0.07 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

[MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) [askjfasgs](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/askjfasgs) $1.40 $0.50 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $1.40 | 88.90% | 52 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.40 | 89.13% | 52 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #d32ee6 0.1% covert 0.0% mil spec 11.1% classified 2.2% #4b69ff 16.4% restricted 12.2% #8847ff 20.4% Legendary 0.7% milspec 1.1% Rare 1.3% industrial 26.4% #87c7ff 8.0% best hit $206 (146.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.90 on average: an expected loss of $11.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt