---
title: "M4A1-S case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "M4A1-S ($5.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.83% from 35 items with odds, observed 88.52% over 15.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/33
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [M4A1-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/33)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · M4A1-S

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/33?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/33?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/33) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/33?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 88.83% · EV $4.44 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.52% · 15.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 86.56% ±11.79 2,290 openings

7 days · 86.91% ±4.97 13K openings

30 days · 88.52% ±4.51 15.8K openings

since tracking started · 88.52% ±4.51 15.8K openings

74.0% 86.5% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/33?window=24h) | 2,290 | 86.56% ±11.8 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/33?window=7d) | 13K | 86.91% ±4.97 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/33) | 15.8K | 88.52% ±4.51 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/33?window=all) | 15.8K | 88.52% ±4.51 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $2,808 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,314 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $797 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $451 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $208 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $197 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $196 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $132 | 0.5% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $129 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $127 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $126 | 0.5% | 6 | 2.7 | 2.23× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $123 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $119 | 0.5% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $70.36 | 0.5% | 9 | 4.9 | 1.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,632 | $57.97 | 0.5% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 126 | $34.25 | 6.1% | 83 | 125.3 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $28.57 | 6.1% | 145 | 150.1 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $19.93 | 6.1% | 176 | 215.3 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $19.29 | 6.1% | 210 | 222.4 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $13.70 | 6.1% | 344 | 313.3 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $12.28 | 6.1% | 313 | 349.5 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $11.84 | 6.1% | 326 | 362.5 | 0.90× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $10.93 | 6.1% | 364 | 392.7 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $8.37 | 7.4% | 531 | 619.1 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $8.04 | 7.4% | 526 | 644.4 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $7.49 | 7.4% | 684 | 691.7 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $5.45 | 7.4% | 910 | 950.7 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $4.46 | 1.9% | 346 | 305.0 | 1.13× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $4.46 | 1.9% | 556 | 305.0 | 1.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.74 | 1.9% | 743 | 782.0 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $1.52 | 1.9% | 850 | 895.2 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.10 | 1.9% | 1,205 | 1236.9 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.69 | 1.4% | 1,531 | 1452.2 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 13.8% | $0.46 | 1.4% | 2,209 | 2178.2 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 22.7% | $0.28 | 1.4% | 3,735 | 3595.2 | 1.04× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/33`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) [ruciqq skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ruciqq%20skins.army) $5.00 $797 159.4x 2026-11-09 22:12 UTC

[M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) [Młody Clacson](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/M%C5%82ody%20Clacson) $5.00 $593 118.5x 2026-11-03 16:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=33)

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) Hidden $5.00 $7.49 1.50x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $19.93 3.99x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 $1.74 0.35x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) [assie070](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/assie070) $5.00 $28.57 5.71x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.46 0.09x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $8.04 1.61x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $8.37 1.67x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-field-tested) [assie070](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/assie070) $5.00 $1.52 0.30x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $28.57 5.71x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 $0.28 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $5.00 | 88.83% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $5.00 | 88.99% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 6.0% restricted 24.1% covert 0.2% Ancient 0.0% pink 7.9% industrial 1.4% #8847ff 10.8% Mythical 13.3% mil spec 6.0% blue 1.9% Mil Spec Grade 5.7% Uncommon 22.7% best hit $797 (159.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.83 on average: an expected loss of $11.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt