---
title: "SG 553 case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SG 553 ($3.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 44 items with odds, observed 90.77% over 7,743 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/333
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [SG 553](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/333)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · SG 553

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/333?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/333?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/333) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/333?window=all)

Price · $3.00

Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $2.67 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.77% · 7,743 openings, odds method

Variance · 14.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.69% ±19.53 1,442 openings

7 days · 87.40% ±9.05 6,594 openings

30 days · 90.77% ±8.30 7,743 openings

since tracking started · 90.77% ±8.30 7,743 openings

59.5% 79.8% 100.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/333?window=24h) | 1,442 | 79.69% ±19.5 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/333?window=7d) | 6,594 | 87.40% ±9.05 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/333) | 7,743 | 90.77% ±8.30 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/333?window=all) | 7,743 | 90.77% ±8.30 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,757 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $316 | 5.2% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.17× |
| [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 1,587 | $224 | 5.3% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 1,587 | $222 | 5.2% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.23× |
| [SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 422 | $59.27 | 5.3% | 13 | 18.4 | 0.71× |
| [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 327 | $45.90 | 5.3% | 35 | 23.7 | 1.47× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-minimal-wear) | 1 in 244 | $18.57 | 2.8% | 28 | 31.7 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 239 | $18.13 | 2.8% | 30 | 32.5 | 0.92× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 233 | $17.66 | 2.8% | 29 | 33.4 | 0.87× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 199 | $15.10 | 2.8% | 35 | 39.0 | 0.90× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 180 | $13.63 | 2.8% | 45 | 43.2 | 1.04× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 175 | $13.29 | 2.8% | 51 | 44.3 | 1.15× |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-well-worn) | 1 in 154 | $11.72 | 2.8% | 51 | 50.3 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $9.87 | 2.8% | 47 | 59.7 | 0.79× |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $6.00 | 2.8% | 78 | 98.1 | 0.79× |
| [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-well-worn) | 1 in 53 | $5.94 | 4.2% | 104 | 145.1 | 0.72× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $5.73 | 4.2% | 121 | 150.4 | 0.80× |
| [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $5.72 | 4.2% | 107 | 150.7 | 0.71× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $5.24 | 4.2% | 214 | 164.4 | 1.30× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $4.87 | 4.2% | 216 | 177.0 | 1.22× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $4.38 | 4.2% | 234 | 196.8 | 1.19× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $4.26 | 4.2% | 156 | 202.3 | 0.77× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $3.92 | 4.2% | 264 | 219.8 | 1.20× |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $3.76 | 4.2% | 300 | 229.2 | 1.31× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 262 | $2.62 | 0.4% | 33 | 29.6 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $2.50 | 0.4% | 26 | 31.0 | 0.84× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 152 | $1.52 | 0.4% | 45 | 51.0 | 0.88× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | 1 in 120 | $1.20 | 0.4% | 55 | 64.6 | 0.85× |
| [SG 553 \| Triarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $1.20 | 0.4% | 62 | 64.6 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 119 | $1.19 | 0.4% | 73 | 65.2 | 1.12× |
| [SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 114 | $1.14 | 0.4% | 65 | 68.0 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $0.84 | 0.4% | 177 | 92.3 | 1.92× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-darkwing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $0.83 | 0.4% | 99 | 93.5 | 1.06× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 59 | $0.59 | 0.4% | 138 | 131.5 | 1.05× |
| [SG 553 \| Aerial (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aerial-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.50 | 0.6% | 280 | 258.2 | 1.08× |
| [SG 553 \| Atlas (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $0.45 | 0.6% | 311 | 286.8 | 1.08× |
| [SG 553 \| Atlas (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.35 | 0.6% | 363 | 368.7 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.35 | 0.6% | 404 | 368.7 | 1.10× |
| [SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.35 | 0.6% | 327 | 368.7 | 0.89× |
| [SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.32 | 0.6% | 383 | 403.3 | 0.95× |
| [SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.29 | 0.6% | 456 | 445.0 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.28 | 0.6% | 465 | 460.8 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.28 | 0.6% | 424 | 460.8 | 0.92× |
| [SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.25 | 0.6% | 486 | 516.2 | 0.94× |
| [SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 13.0% | $0.13 | 0.6% | 912 | 1005.2 | 0.91× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/333`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) [ナンジャク skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E3%83%8A%E3%83%B3%E3%82%B8%E3%83%A3%E3%82%AF%20skins.army) $3.00 $316 105.4x 2026-11-09 19:13 UTC

[SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) [mike123\_87](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mike123_87) $3.00 $262 87.24x 2026-11-04 18:02 UTC

[SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $3.00 $262 87.24x 2026-11-04 17:31 UTC

[SG 553 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) [lyMMO2231.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/lyMMO2231.skins.army) $3.00 $262 87.24x 2026-11-03 11:38 UTC

[SG 553 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-field-tested) [frajerskiSKINS skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/frajerskiSKINS%20skins.army) $3.00 $224 74.61x 2026-11-10 19:13 UTC

[SG 553 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $224 74.61x 2026-11-10 11:00 UTC

[SG 553 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-field-tested) [Hashtag](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Hashtag) $3.00 $224 74.61x 2026-11-09 23:40 UTC

[SG 553 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-field-tested) [🍅👽🍅](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9F%8D%85%F0%9F%91%BD%F0%9F%8D%85) $3.00 $224 74.61x 2026-11-09 20:28 UTC

[SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $222 74.06x 2026-11-11 10:32 UTC

[SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $222 74.06x 2026-11-10 14:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=333)

[SG 553 | Danger Close (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-field-tested) [Jabari Tahir♛ -C13\_r|\_|ch4M-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jabari%20Tahir%E2%99%9B%20-C13_r%7C_%7Cch4M-) $3.00 $0.28 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC

[SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $13.63 4.54x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC

[SG 553 | Heavy Metal (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-heavy-metal-battle-scarred) [MR.Dick](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MR.Dick) $3.00 $0.29 0.10x 2026-11-11 19:22 UTC

[SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $1.20 0.40x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) [MR.Dick](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MR.Dick) $3.00 $18.13 6.04x 2026-11-11 19:20 UTC

[SG 553 | Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.00 $0.25 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

[SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) [MR.Dick](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MR.Dick) $3.00 $0.35 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

[SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-anodized-navy-factory-new) [James Bond “skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/James%20Bond%20%E2%80%9Cskins.army%E2%80%9D) $3.00 $0.35 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:17 UTC

[SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) [MR.Dick](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MR.Dick) $3.00 $0.13 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:17 UTC

[SG 553 | Triarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-triarch-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.00 $1.20 0.40x 2026-11-11 19:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 13:17 UTC | $3.00 | 88.92% | 44 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.00 | 89.12% | 44 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 6.0% #d32ee6 2.9% #4b69ff 34.0% classified 4.3% mil spec 2.4% Rare 9.0% Industrial Grade 0.6% industrial 1.9% #8847ff 8.0% milspec 24.3% violet 1.7% blue 4.8% best hit $316 (105.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt