---
title: "UMP-45 case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "UMP-45 ($1.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.11% from 42 items with odds, observed 87.71% over 45.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/337
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [UMP-45](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/337)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · UMP-45

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/337?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/337?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/337) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/337?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 89.11% · EV $0.89 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.71% · 45.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.70% ±6.01 6,726 openings

7 days · 88.26% ±2.54 37.2K openings

30 days · 87.71% ±2.29 45.1K openings

since tracking started · 87.71% ±2.29 45.1K openings

84.0% 90.8% 97.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/337?window=24h) | 6,726 | 90.70% ±6.01 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/337?window=7d) | 37.2K | 88.26% ±2.54 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/337) | 45.1K | 87.71% ±2.29 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/337?window=all) | 45.1K | 87.71% ±2.29 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $226 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $148 | 0.8% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $111 | 0.7% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $78.35 | 0.8% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.48× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $27.08 | 0.8% | 6 | 11.3 | 0.53× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $20.27 | 0.8% | 13 | 15.4 | 0.85× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 2,632 | $18.28 | 0.8% | 14 | 17.2 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,564 | $17.48 | 0.8% | 12 | 17.6 | 0.68× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,381 | $16.27 | 0.8% | 12 | 19.0 | 0.63× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 2,128 | $14.70 | 0.8% | 22 | 21.2 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 452 | $9.95 | 2.5% | 79 | 99.8 | 0.79× |
| [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-well-worn) | 1 in 420 | $9.23 | 2.5% | 129 | 107.5 | 1.20× |
| [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 1 in 344 | $7.57 | 2.5% | 134 | 131.4 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 344 | $7.56 | 2.5% | 136 | 131.4 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-factory-new) | 1 in 304 | $6.68 | 2.5% | 140 | 148.6 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-minimal-wear) | 1 in 293 | $6.46 | 2.5% | 108 | 154.0 | 0.70× |
| [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 279 | $6.12 | 2.5% | 180 | 162.1 | 1.11× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 248 | $5.46 | 2.5% | 177 | 182.0 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 237 | $5.21 | 2.5% | 210 | 190.6 | 1.10× |
| [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-field-tested) | 1 in 211 | $4.63 | 2.5% | 226 | 214.5 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 178 | $3.92 | 2.5% | 257 | 253.3 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-well-worn) | 1 in 153 | $3.37 | 2.5% | 306 | 294.9 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-factory-new) | 1 in 135 | $2.96 | 2.5% | 322 | 335.5 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $2.12 | 2.5% | 432 | 468.8 | 0.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| Indigo (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $2.04 | 2.5% | 455 | 486.8 | 0.93× |
| [UMP-45 \| Mechanism (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mechanism-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $1.91 | 5.1% | 1,121 | 1081.1 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $1.81 | 5.1% | 1,092 | 1140.7 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $1.66 | 5.1% | 1,215 | 1243.7 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.55 | 5.1% | 1,343 | 1331.7 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.54 | 5.1% | 1,348 | 1340.3 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.30 | 5.1% | 1,560 | 1587.8 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $1.26 | 5.1% | 1,471 | 1638.4 | 0.90× |
| [UMP-45 \| Riot (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $0.72 | 2.0% | 1,362 | 1129.0 | 1.21× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.68 | 2.0% | 1,216 | 1195.4 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Riot (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.61 | 2.0% | 1,308 | 1332.6 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.55 | 2.0% | 1,383 | 1478.1 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.52 | 2.0% | 1,480 | 1563.4 | 0.95× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.48 | 1.8% | 1,551 | 1543.1 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.43 | 1.8% | 1,692 | 1722.4 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.42 | 1.8% | 1,791 | 1763.5 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.38 | 1.8% | 1,838 | 1949.1 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 41.3% | $0.04 | 1.9% | 19,009 | 18645.7 | 1.02× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/337`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-factory-new) [segfault2](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/segfault2) $1.00 $226 226.2x 2026-11-07 22:51 UTC

[UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $111 111.1x 2026-11-10 20:14 UTC

[UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-factory-new) [Autekk skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Autekk%20skins.army) $1.00 $111 111.1x 2026-11-09 09:05 UTC

[UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $78.35 78.35x 2026-11-11 00:30 UTC

[UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) [wolniaczek skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/wolniaczek%20skins.army) $1.00 $78.35 78.35x 2026-11-10 14:53 UTC

[UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) [kubuś ψ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kubu%C5%9B%20%CF%88) $1.00 $78.35 78.35x 2026-11-09 17:39 UTC

[UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) [armane](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/armane) $1.00 $78.35 78.35x 2026-11-07 23:30 UTC

[UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) [Mr.Dictator](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mr.Dictator) $1.00 $78.35 78.35x 2026-11-07 13:14 UTC

[UMP-45 | Day Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-minimal-wear) [Juzioq skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Juzioq%20skins.army) $1.00 $78.35 78.35x 2026-11-07 02:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=337)

[UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $1.30 1.30x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[UMP-45 | Riot (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-riot-field-tested) [cicho cicho „skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cicho%20cicho%20%E2%80%9Eskins.army%E2%80%9D) $1.00 $0.61 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:04 UTC

[UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [amo a las mamás calientes](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/amo%20a%20las%20mam%C3%A1s%20calientes) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [hołdinho.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ho%C5%82dinho.skins.army) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC

[UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [CYGAN (ツ)ว](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/CYGAN%20%28%E3%83%84%29%E0%B8%A7) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) [cicho cicho „skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cicho%20cicho%20%E2%80%9Eskins.army%E2%80%9D) $1.00 $1.26 1.26x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[UMP-45 | Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $1.54 1.54x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[UMP-45 | Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-briefing-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $0.43 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-urban-ddpat-field-tested) [EtOpSEEskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/EtOpSEEskins.army) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.00 $1.26 1.26x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $1.00 | 89.11% | 42 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.00 | 88.82% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 2.9% classified 0.3% #8847ff 6.8% mil spec 7.2% #4b69ff 15.3% #d32ee6 0.0% pink 0.0% restricted 11.0% Mil Spec 3.8% Legendary 0.4% violet 6.9% Restricted 0.6% #777777 42.4% #87c7ff 2.4% best hit $226 (226.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.11 on average: an expected loss of $10.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt