---
title: "USP-S case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "USP-S ($2.20) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.00% from 27 items with odds, observed 87.95% over 73.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/35
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [USP-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/35)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · USP-S

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/35?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/35?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/35) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/35?window=all)

Price · $2.20

Advertised RTP · 89.00% · EV $1.96 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.95% · 73.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.73% ±3.60 10.5K openings

7 days · 87.68% ±1.48 61.6K openings

30 days · 87.95% ±1.36 73.1K openings

since tracking started · 87.95% ±1.36 73.1K openings

83.5% 87.8% 92.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/35?window=24h) | 10.5K | 87.73% ±3.60 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/35?window=7d) | 61.6K | 87.68% ±1.48 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/35) | 73.1K | 87.95% ±1.36 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/35?window=all) | 73.1K | 87.95% ±1.36 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 73.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $117 | 1.2% | 6 | 14.6 | 0.41× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $74.27 | 1.2% | 27 | 23.4 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 2,778 | $65.63 | 1.2% | 20 | 26.4 | 0.76× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-field-tested) | 1 in 2,564 | $60.42 | 1.2% | 20 | 28.6 | 0.70× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,222 | $52.51 | 1.2% | 16 | 33.0 | 0.49× |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-well-worn) | 1 in 1,316 | $31.42 | 1.2% | 45 | 55.7 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 1,250 | $29.85 | 1.2% | 51 | 58.6 | 0.87× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 1,075 | $25.43 | 1.2% | 53 | 68.1 | 0.78× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 173 | $20.15 | 6.0% | 309 | 424.0 | 0.73× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $12.85 | 6.0% | 391 | 665.0 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $8.84 | 6.0% | 747 | 966.7 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $7.33 | 6.0% | 867 | 1165.9 | 0.74× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $6.81 | 6.0% | 866 | 1254.6 | 0.69× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $4.86 | 6.0% | 1,233 | 1758.4 | 0.70× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $4.10 | 6.8% | 1,531 | 2381.7 | 0.64× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $3.64 | 6.8% | 2,469 | 2682.7 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $3.56 | 6.8% | 2,444 | 2742.8 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $3.11 | 6.8% | 3,040 | 3139.7 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.99 | 6.8% | 3,052 | 3265.7 | 0.93× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.90 | 6.8% | 3,175 | 3367.5 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $2.04 | 2.0% | 2,955 | 1406.2 | 2.10× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1.56 | 2.0% | 2,044 | 1839.0 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $1.47 | 2.0% | 3,807 | 1951.1 | 1.95× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $1.20 | 2.0% | 3,389 | 2390.5 | 1.42× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.72 | 2.0% | 5,367 | 3984.1 | 1.35× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) | 17.8% | $0.22 | 2.0% | 18,162 | 13038.6 | 1.39× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 33.5% | $0.10 | 1.7% | 17,152 | 24505.4 | 0.70× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/35`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $2.20 $135 61.46x 2026-11-08 19:30 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) [adi2020](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/adi2020) $2.20 $135 61.46x 2026-11-07 18:48 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $2.20 $135 61.46x 2026-11-07 15:21 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) [KARM3L3CZ3Kskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KARM3L3CZ3Kskins.army) $2.20 $135 61.46x 2026-11-06 13:11 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) [Patrys aka Mexico](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Patrys%20aka%20Mexico) $2.20 $117 53.34x 2026-11-11 09:49 UTC

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) [F\*cKy\*U](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/F*cKy*U-76561199569734937) $2.20 $117 53.34x 2026-11-09 19:48 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=35)

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $2.20 $0.10 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $2.20 $0.10 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [o7alek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/o7alek) $2.20 $0.10 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) [abc ʕʘ̅͜ʘ̅ʔ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/abc%20%CA%95%CA%98%CC%85%CD%9C%CA%98%CC%85%CA%94) $2.20 $1.56 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[USP-S | Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) [Malina](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Malina) $2.20 $1.20 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $2.20 $0.10 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) [Żelek skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%C5%BBelek%20skins.army) $2.20 $0.22 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[USP-S | Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) [cicho cicho „skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cicho%20cicho%20%E2%80%9Eskins.army%E2%80%9D) $2.20 $7.33 3.33x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[USP-S | Para Green (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-field-tested) [abc ʕʘ̅͜ʘ̅ʔ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/abc%20%CA%95%CA%98%CC%85%CD%9C%CA%98%CC%85%CA%94) $2.20 $6.81 3.10x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [sowa #nie](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sowa%20%23nie) $2.20 $0.10 0.05x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $2.20 | 89.00% | 27 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $2.20 | 88.76% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 1.7% covert 0.1% restricted 4.4% classified 7.1% mil spec 29.1% industrial 34.8% #4b69ff 4.9% Rare 7.0% violet 4.5% #8847ff 4.6% Restricted 1.9% best hit $135 (61.46x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.00 on average: an expected loss of $11.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt