---
title: "EXPENSIVE case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "EXPENSIVE ($8.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.89% from 20 items with odds, observed 85.25% over 11.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/37
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [EXPENSIVE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/37)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · EXPENSIVE

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/37?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/37?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/37) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/37?window=all)

Price · $8.00

Advertised RTP · 88.89% · EV $7.11 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.25% · 11.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.32% ±9.34 1,789 openings

7 days · 86.11% ±3.96 9,945 openings

30 days · 85.25% ±3.65 11.7K openings

since tracking started · 85.25% ±3.65 11.7K openings

78.5% 88.5% 98.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/37?window=24h) | 1,789 | 88.32% ±9.34 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/37?window=7d) | 9,945 | 86.11% ±3.96 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/37) | 11.7K | 85.25% ±3.65 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/37?window=all) | 11.7K | 85.25% ±3.65 | −2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 1,471 | $291 | 2.8% | 5 | 8.0 | 0.63× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 1,042 | $207 | 2.8% | 9 | 11.2 | 0.80× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 625 | $124 | 2.8% | 13 | 18.7 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 610 | $121 | 2.8% | 8 | 19.2 | 0.42× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 556 | $110 | 2.8% | 20 | 21.1 | 0.95× |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-factory-new) | 1 in 538 | $106 | 2.8% | 26 | 21.8 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $43.70 | 9.3% | 167 | 178.1 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $38.64 | 9.3% | 205 | 201.4 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $33.06 | 9.3% | 252 | 235.4 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $23.82 | 9.3% | 308 | 326.8 | 0.94× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $14.97 | 9.3% | 531 | 519.9 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $13.73 | 9.3% | 535 | 566.9 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $8.07 | 9.3% | 962 | 964.5 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $7.33 | 2.6% | 299 | 290.0 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $4.96 | 2.6% | 439 | 428.6 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $3.76 | 2.6% | 554 | 565.3 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $3.72 | 2.6% | 604 | 571.4 | 1.06× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) | 10.2% | $1.78 | 2.6% | 1,183 | 1194.3 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) | 11.9% | $1.53 | 2.6% | 1,380 | 1389.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) | 35.7% | $0.52 | 2.6% | 4,217 | 4184.8 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/37`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=37)

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) Hidden $8.00 $0.52 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) [Steapy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Steapy) $8.00 $14.97 1.87x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.00 $1.53 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) [Steapy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Steapy) $8.00 $4.96 0.62x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[MP5-SD | Agent (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.00 $1.78 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) [Steapy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Steapy) $8.00 $13.73 1.72x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) [LucA :D skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/LucA%20%3AD%20skins.army) $8.00 $33.06 4.13x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-field-tested) [Steapy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Steapy) $8.00 $0.52 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.00 $1.53 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

[P250 | Franklin (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-well-worn) [SpizganyBanan](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SpizganyBanan) $8.00 $3.72 0.47x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $8.00 | 88.89% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.2% classified 24.2% restricted 65.1% Legendary 3.7% #d32ee6 4.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.89 on average: an expected loss of $11.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt