---
title: "Petrol case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Petrol ($33.40) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.39% from 20 items with odds, observed 79.57% over 725 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/383
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Petrol](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/383)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Petrol

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/383?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/383?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/383) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/383?window=all)

Price · $33.40

Advertised RTP · 86.39% · EV $28.86 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.57% · 725 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82 openings · below min

7 days · 79.61% ±7.79 653 openings

30 days · 79.57% ±7.39 725 openings

since tracking started · 79.57% ±7.39 725 openings

44.5% 67.0% 89.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/383?window=24h) | 82 | 67.11% ±22.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/383?window=7d) | 653 | 79.61% ±7.79 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/383) | 725 | 79.57% ±7.39 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/383?window=all) | 725 | 79.57% ±7.39 | −1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 728 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $97.53 | 16.9% | 31 | 36.4 | 0.85× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $90.00 | 15.6% | 36 | 36.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $83.15 | 14.4% | 32 | 36.4 | 0.88× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $78.36 | 13.6% | 31 | 36.4 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $68.63 | 11.9% | 39 | 36.4 | 1.07× |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $46.78 | 8.1% | 30 | 36.4 | 0.82× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $26.53 | 4.6% | 35 | 36.4 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $25.52 | 4.4% | 37 | 36.4 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $18.79 | 3.3% | 28 | 36.4 | 0.77× |
| [FAMAS \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $14.91 | 2.6% | 32 | 36.4 | 0.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $10.66 | 1.8% | 38 | 36.4 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $5.34 | 0.9% | 32 | 36.4 | 0.88× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.63 | 0.5% | 41 | 36.4 | 1.13× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.72 | 0.3% | 43 | 36.4 | 1.18× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.63 | 0.3% | 33 | 36.4 | 0.91× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Oil Change (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-oil-change-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.61 | 0.3% | 39 | 36.4 | 1.07× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.19 | 0.2% | 38 | 36.4 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.96 | 0.2% | 45 | 36.4 | 1.24× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.81 | 0.1% | 41 | 36.4 | 1.13× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.36 | 0.1% | 47 | 36.4 | 1.29× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/383`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=383)

[USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.40 $0.96 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[Glock-18 | Ironwork (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ironwork-field-tested) Hidden $33.40 $1.19 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-field-tested) Hidden $33.40 $0.36 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) [czak skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/czak%20skins.army) $33.40 $26.53 0.79x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC

[USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.40 $90.00 2.69x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) [Deathstrike](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Deathstrike) $33.40 $68.63 2.05x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-factory-new) Hidden $33.40 $1.63 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) [ponton](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ponton) $33.40 $26.53 0.79x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) Hidden $33.40 $0.81 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC

[FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-dark-water-minimal-wear) [ุุุszymek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E0%B8%B8%E0%B8%B8%E0%B8%B8szymek) $33.40 $14.91 0.45x 2026-11-11 11:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $33.40 | 86.39% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed mil spec 30.0% restricted 15.0% classified 15.0% industrial 10.0% #8847ff 5.0% Rare 5.0% blue 5.0% Consumer Grade 5.0% #4b69ff 5.0% #87c7ff 5.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.39 on average: an expected loss of $13.61 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt