--- title: "Gotcha! case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Gotcha! ($153.40) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.81% from 20 items with odds, observed 84.41% over 142 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/384 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Gotcha!](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/384) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Gotcha! A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/384?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/384?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/384) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/384?window=all) Price · $153.40 Advertised RTP · 86.81% · EV $133.17 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.41% · 142 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 76.43% ±22.20 107 openings 30 days · 84.41% ±19.27 142 openings since tracking started · 84.41% ±19.27 142 openings 6.5% 61.2% 116.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/384?window=24h) | 18 | 61.32% ±54.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/384?window=7d) | 107 | 76.43% ±22.2 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/384) | 142 | 84.41% ±19.3 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/384?window=all) | 142 | 84.41% ±19.3 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 142 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $628 | 23.6% | 7 | 7.1 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $516 | 19.4% | 5 | 7.1 | 0.70× | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $383 | 14.4% | 10 | 7.1 | 1.41× | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $313 | 11.8% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $231 | 8.7% | 6 | 7.1 | 0.85× | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $112 | 4.2% | 2 | 7.1 | 0.28× | | [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $101 | 3.8% | 12 | 7.1 | 1.69× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $84.46 | 3.2% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.56× | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $65.12 | 2.4% | 7 | 7.1 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $51.33 | 1.9% | 3 | 7.1 | 0.42× | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $46.78 | 1.8% | 10 | 7.1 | 1.41× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $34.63 | 1.3% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.56× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $28.48 | 1.1% | 3 | 7.1 | 0.42× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $24.34 | 0.9% | 10 | 7.1 | 1.41× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $11.53 | 0.4% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× | | [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $10.68 | 0.4% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $9.97 | 0.4% | 9 | 7.1 | 1.27× | | [P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $5.53 | 0.2% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× | | [XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.89 | 0.1% | 10 | 7.1 | 1.41× | | [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $2.51 | 0.1% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/384`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $153 $628 4.10x 2026-11-09 20:49 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [kick.com/krycholewa (rozdaje$)](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kick.com%2Fkrycholewa%20%28rozdaje%24%29) $153 $628 4.10x 2026-11-06 22:06 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [Andrew](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Andrew) $153 $628 4.10x 2026-11-06 19:02 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [Andrew](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Andrew) $153 $628 4.10x 2026-11-05 19:22 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [ku](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ku) $153 $628 4.10x 2026-11-05 18:40 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [Masło](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mas%C5%82o) $153 $628 4.10x 2026-11-05 09:28 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $153 $628 4.10x 2026-11-05 09:28 UTC [AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) [Bylek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Bylek) $153 $516 3.36x 2026-11-07 14:10 UTC [AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) [aimstarooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/aimstarooo) $153 $516 3.36x 2026-11-03 15:06 UTC [AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-factory-new) [aimstarooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/aimstarooo) $153 $516 3.36x 2026-11-03 15:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=384) [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $153 $28.48 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC [AWP | Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) [Diabeuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Diabeuu) $153 $24.34 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:31 UTC [AWP | Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) Hidden $153 $24.34 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) [Diabeuu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Diabeuu) $153 $313 2.04x 2026-11-11 16:30 UTC [AUG | Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) Hidden $153 $383 2.50x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [XM1014 | Monster Melt (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-minimal-wear) Hidden $153 $3.89 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-battle-scarred) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $153 $2.51 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-battle-scarred) Hidden $153 $2.51 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [XM1014 | Monster Melt (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-minimal-wear) Hidden $153 $3.89 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $153 $10.68 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $153 | 86.81% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 35.0% restricted 30.0% classified 5.0% mil spec 10.0% #d32ce6 5.0% #d32ee6 5.0% pink 5.0% Classified 5.0% best hit $628 (4.10x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.81 on average: an expected loss of $13.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt