---
title: "Touchy case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Touchy ($12.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.79% from 25 items with odds, observed 85.47% over 4,770 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/386
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Touchy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/386)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Touchy

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/386?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/386?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/386) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/386?window=all)

Price · $12.00

Advertised RTP · 86.79% · EV $10.42 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.47% · 4,770 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.54% ±9.03 400 openings

7 days · 85.43% ±2.95 3,703 openings

30 days · 85.47% ±2.60 4,770 openings

since tracking started · 85.47% ±2.60 4,770 openings

75.0% 84.5% 94.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/386?window=24h) | 400 | 84.54% ±9.03 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/386?window=7d) | 3,703 | 85.43% ±2.95 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/386) | 4,770 | 85.47% ±2.60 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/386?window=all) | 4,770 | 85.47% ±2.60 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,770 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $37.35 | 14.3% | 206 | 190.8 | 1.08× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $36.93 | 14.2% | 175 | 190.8 | 0.92× |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $29.63 | 11.4% | 181 | 190.8 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $29.62 | 11.4% | 185 | 190.8 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $13.75 | 5.3% | 181 | 190.8 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $13.64 | 5.2% | 176 | 190.8 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $13.50 | 5.2% | 185 | 190.8 | 0.97× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $13.38 | 5.1% | 178 | 190.8 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $10.24 | 3.9% | 184 | 190.8 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $10.22 | 3.9% | 210 | 190.8 | 1.10× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $8.45 | 3.2% | 205 | 190.8 | 1.07× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6.82 | 2.6% | 208 | 190.8 | 1.09× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6.60 | 2.5% | 193 | 190.8 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $6.47 | 2.5% | 179 | 190.8 | 0.94× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6.24 | 2.4% | 199 | 190.8 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $3.91 | 1.5% | 181 | 190.8 | 0.95× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.53 | 1.4% | 174 | 190.8 | 0.91× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $3.30 | 1.3% | 196 | 190.8 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $3.20 | 1.2% | 231 | 190.8 | 1.21× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.83 | 0.3% | 192 | 190.8 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.76 | 0.3% | 168 | 190.8 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.69 | 0.3% | 196 | 190.8 | 1.03× |
| [G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.52 | 0.2% | 193 | 190.8 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Imprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-imprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $0.45 | 0.2% | 191 | 190.8 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.35 | 0.1% | 203 | 190.8 | 1.06× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/386`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=386)

[AWP | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $12.00 $10.22 0.85x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.00 $29.62 2.47x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[G3SG1 | High Seas (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-field-tested) [boloszefskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/boloszefskins.army) $12.00 $0.83 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:00 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $12.00 $3.53 0.29x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) Hidden $12.00 $6.60 0.55x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC

[FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) [P0go17](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/P0go17) $12.00 $6.60 0.55x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) Hidden $12.00 $13.50 1.13x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-field-tested) Hidden $12.00 $3.91 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) Hidden $12.00 $0.69 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) [robekskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/robekskins.army) $12.00 $29.62 2.47x 2026-11-11 16:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $12.00 | 86.79% | 25 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $12.90 | 86.54% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Ancient 4.0% classified 32.0% restricted 20.0% #8847ff 4.0% #4b69ff 12.0% pink 4.0% violet 4.0% mil spec 8.0% Mythical 8.0% milspec 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.79 on average: an expected loss of $13.21 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt